The San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros will take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball.
I've circled an Astros star to go deep while their ace takes care of business on the mound in my Sunday Night Baseball props for April 20.
Padres vs Astros Sunday Night Baseball props
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Altuve HR (+550 at Caesars) - Valdez Over 17.5 outs (-174 at Caesars)
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Wade Under 0.5 hits (-133 at Caesars)
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Padres vs Astros props for Sunday Night Baseball
Jose Altuve home run (+550 at Caesars)
This is quite the matchup for Jose Altuve.
We know the Astros' star is one of the more talented hitters of his generation — particularly against the fastball — but I'd like to focus on what he's done against the slider. That pitch makes up 40% of Dylan Cease's pitching arsenal, and one he's used more because of his success throwing it. Altuve has crushed them lately.
The last four times he's seen the pitch, it's resulted in the following four results:
- A home run
- In play out with a triple-digit exit velocity
- Single
- Another in-play out with a triple-digit exit velocity
Working even more in our favor is Altuve's pull rate, which places him in the 95th percentile of baseball. That allows him to utilize the short porch in Minute Maid Park, precisely where that homer from the slider was hit.
Cease has gotten off to a rough start in 2025. While it won't last, we may as well capitalize on a barrel rate in the Bottom 20% of baseball while we can.
Framber Valdez Over 17.5 outs (-174 at Caesars)
We're laying the juice here, but it's hard to disagree when you make the fair value on this market a click past -200.
The name of the game for Framber Valdez is always efficiency and inducing ground balls. He's one of the most elite groundball pitchers in the league over his career, and nothing much has changed this season.
The Padres have a groundball rate of around 45% this season, tied for the sixth-highest in the league. It'll be the highest groundball-hitting team Valdez has started against this year.
Zooming in on the matters, you can find a closer comp to the Padres in the form of the Seattle Mariners. They have almost an identical ground ball rate against lefties as San Diego. That was also a matchup where Valdez exceeded this number in a start against them this year.
In addition to that, Valdez went over this with relative ease the last time he faced the Padres a year ago, with seven innings pitched. It's a group whose approach remains essentially unchanged at the plate sans Fernado Tatis Jr being back in the lineup.
Tyler Wade Under 0.5 hits (-133 at Caesars)
Since making his season debut a week ago, Tyler Wade has recorded at least one hit in every game, giving him a .385 batting average. It certainly feels like an aberration of sorts, though.
Did a career .220 hitter in the league for nearly a decade suddenly become great or even good? I don't think so, and I expect to see some of that negative regression as the season progresses. That belief is furthered by the expected batting average this season, which is actually .228. This feels like a good place to start, and it goes back to the ground ball aspect of things.
No hitter on the diamond tonight will have a higher rate of hitting them over their career than Wade at 53% and over 70% this season. That, alone, is good enough for me. But it certainly doesn't help matters having a 40% whiff rate against breaking balls, either. He'll see plenty of them this evening from Valdez.
Not intended for use in MA.
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