The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres in the final matchup of this three-game series at Citi Field.
My Padres vs. Mets prediction focuses on the total in this NL matchup.
Padres vs Mets prediction
Padres vs Mets best bet: Over 9 (-110)
Right-handed rookie Jonah Tong takes the mound for the New York Mets, and he's struggled in his debut campaign. Through three starts, Tong is 1-2 with an 8.49 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.
His underlying metrics suggest that more of the same can be expected moving forward. If he officially qualified, Tong would rank near the bottom of the league in expected ERA (xERA), expected batting average (xBA), walk rate, and barrel rate.
These woes are likely to continue against the San Diego Padres, a team that ranks in the top half of the league in hits per game, batting average, and on-base percentage.
Meanwhile, the Padres hand the ball to right-hander Randy Vasquez. This season, he ranks in the 12th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and barrel rate.
The good news for this pitching staff is that it should receive plenty of run support. Entering this matchup, the Mets rank in the Top 10 in runs scored per game, OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS.
Padres vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. enters this game in excellent form, having crossed the plate seven times over the past four games. Tatis boasts a .500 batting average, .714 slugging percentage, and 1.325 OPS over that stretch.
Meanwhile, Juan Soto is 1-for-3 in his career against Vasquez, with that one hit being a home run.
Padres vs Mets SGP
- Over 9
- Fernando Tatis Over 0.5 runs
- Juan Soto Over 0.5 runs
Padres vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +105 | New York -125
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+165) | New York +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Padres vs Mets trend
There have been 9+ total runs scored in each of Jonah Tong’s three starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets.
How to watch Padres vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Thursday, September 18, 2025 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Padres starting pitcher | Randy Vasquez (5-6, 3.72 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Jonah Tong (1-2, 8.49 ERA) |
Padres vs Mets latest injuries
Padres vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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