It’s a series featuring some of baseball's biggest names when the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies meet this evening.
After a 5-5 record over the last ten games, a general malaise around the season, and surrendering a divisional lead, this series feels pivotal for the Yankees. While pinpointing a Game 1 winner is difficult, we are headed to the prop market for a play with a decent edge.
My Phillies vs. Yankees predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet Friday, July 25.
Phillies vs Yankees prediction
My Phillies vs Yankees best bet: Taijuan Walker Under 3.5 strikeouts (+106 at bet365)
The case of Taijuan Walker may be as interesting as any starting pitcher in the league. He’s seen the highs and lows. In the process, he’s gone from a disaster season last year to an OK one this season, in a year that has featured stints out of the bullpen as well as starting.
Tonight, he’ll get the start, with the BatX projecting a meager total of 13 outs recorded. With that in mind, I see value in this strikeout number, with a personal projection of just 2.7 strikeouts. I’ll happily take the plus-money price because of that.
There are two paths by which this can cash. One is what we touched on above, where Walker gets a standard outing and simply doesn’t get much swing-and-miss, as he has all season. The other involves how deep he goes and how much he labors. That’s the one that grabbed my attention.
Walker has done a moderately good job of inducing soft contact on the season, with strong barrel rate numbers and hard-hit numbers. However, his cutter-heavy approach is concerning.
Walker has been able to get through most innings throwing this pitch almost 39% of the time, and it’s inducing a batting average of .189. But what happens if that doesn’t hold up here?
The New York Yankees have obliterated most cutter-heavy pitchers, ranking in the top three in baseball when facing that pitch, on almost any metric you can find. I think this strikeout number, on the surface, is too high when you look at what Walker and the Yankees have done this season.
When you consider the risk of him being run early, it becomes too good to pass up.
Phillies vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Taijuan Walker Under 3.5 strikeouts
Phillies moneyline
While I think there’s a good chance the Yankees get after Walker, I think the other side could be even worse.
Will Warren has struggled lately, and his hard-hit rate issues are concerning against such a strong Philadelphia Phillies lineup.
Phillies vs Yankees odds
Phillies vs Yankees live odds
Phillies vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +125 | New York -150
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-155) | New York -1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-120) | Under 9.5 (+100)
Phillies vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the game total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Yankees.
How to watch Phillies vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Friday, 7-25-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Taijuan Walker (3-5, 3.75 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (6-5, 4.91 ERA) |
Phillies vs Yankees latest injuries
Phillies vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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