Seeing series odds of the Minnesota Timberwolves beating the Los Angeles Lakers at about +160 suggests a 38% chance Minnesota pulls off this upset.
On the surface, going against LeBron James and Luka Doncic might argue for even steeper odds against the Timberwolves, especially given Doncic tortured Minnesota in last year’s Western Conference Finals.
Doncic averaged a casual 32.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists in that series while shooting 43.4% from deep. The iconic visual may be Doncic hitting a stepback 3-pointer over Rudy Gobert’s outstretched arm to win Game 2, but the Slovenian superstar had control of the series from start to finish.
What hope do the Timberwolves have in our NBA picks? Perhaps quite a bit. Let's dig into three reasons Minnesota will upset Los Angeles.
Three reasons why the Timberwolves will win the series
1. A focused Rudy Gobert
Basketball analysts who brag about not watching the NBA might scoff at the idea of a team with Rudy Gobert beating a team with Luka Doncic, but Shaquille O’Neal and Charles Barkley are simply betraying their chosen ignorance.
When Doncic hit that game-winner against the Minnesota Timberwolves last year to take a 2-0 lead, Gobert was not supposed to switch onto the then-Mavs superstar. That was a Gobert mistake, yes, but it still warrants noting that it was not the desired defensive design.
Mistakes happen, but the process in that moment was sound.
Gobert has also found a focus in the latter third of this season that should scare an opponent with no sound inside presence. Through January, Gobert averaged just 10.4 points and 10.1 rebounds in 48 games. Something switched in the weeks before the All-Star Break, with Gobert then averaging 15 points and 12.4 rebounds in seven games just before the midseason pause.
Back spasms cost Gobert the first two weeks after the break, so let’s focus on what he has done since then.
In 17 games, the French big man has scored 15 or more points 10 times. He has grabbed 15 or more rebounds five times. He has averaged 15.4 points and 12.5 rebounds while shooting 70.7% from the field, compared to the 64.8% he was shooting through January.
This matters more than ever in this particular series. The Los Angeles Lakers rely on Jaxson Hayes inside and, umm, Jarred Vanderbilt? Hayes is big enough to nominally bother Gobert, but he is also a liability in the pick-and-roll game that Anthony Edwards would enjoy exploiting. Vanderbilt is 6-foot-8 and might fare better in the latter concern, but he would be devastated by Gobert.
There was a reason Los Angeles wanted Mark Williams once it sent Anthony Davis to Dallas. The Lakers lack an inside presence. That will be priority No. 1 this offseason. Gobert could push them to face that problem far sooner than anticipated.
2. Defense wins championships
Minnesota’s defense has been nowhere near the generational unit it was last season. More worryingly, the Timberwolves have rarely shown the ability to find that gear for even a spurt.
Yet, Minnesota has ranked No. 7 in defensive rating at 110.7 since March 1, while Los Angeles has been No. 18 at 116.5. That subsection of the season is chosen intentionally because it aligns with when Doncic began carrying his full workload with the Lakers.
They have, quite simply, been a defensive liability with Doncic at the helm, dragging their net rating down to +0.7, compared to the Timberwolves’ +11.2 since March 1.
Does Minnesota have a solid solution for Doncic? Not aside from throwing bodies at home in the shapes of Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaylen Clark, and Donte DiVincenzo. Still, the Timberwolves have more of an answer than most teams, and they should have one for just about everything else.
And that quintet of wings and guards can sell out harder against Doncic now than when he was in Dallas. Los Angeles’s backing out of the Mark Williams deal left the roster devoid of not only a rebounding presence but also a rim-runner for Doncic.
Hayes is their best option, but he has averaged just 21.6 minutes since March 1. An ideal rim-runner also has to be a strong defender when pairing with Doncic. See: Dereck Lively II and, to a lesser extent, Daniel Gafford. Before them, see Kristaps Porzingis and Dwight Powell.
While defensively sound, Vanderbilt cannot consistently provide that offensive outlet. Frankly, the role may fall to LeBron James, which is a downgrade from his other offensive possibilities, thus further short-circuiting the Lakers’ offense.
The Timberwolves’ perimeter defenders can sell out harder on Doncic at the arc, knowing there is less of a threat awaiting at the rim when he drives. With Minnesota’s defense already arguably the strongest unit in this series, that Los Angeles deficiency looms large.
3. 3-point shooting
This could go either way. Edwards could shoot the Timberwolves into a sweep. He could also shoot them out of this series. Logically, the same things could be said of Doncic.
Let’s start with Edwards.
His shooting this season belonged in conversation with only one other player: Steph Curry. That is not an exaggeration.
However, Edwards has struggled down the homestretch, in part because of a thumb laceration that should be healed by now. Since March 1, Edwards has hit just 36.6% of his 10.7 3-point attempts per game. While that is good enough to keep shooting, it is not good enough to trust in a series like this.
Enter DiVincenzo. He has hit 44.8% of his 3-pointers on 7.2 attempts per game since March 1. He can lift the numbers when Edwards struggles.
If Edwards regains some energy — he hit 41.4% of his 3s on 10.1 attempts per game before the All-Star Break — then the combination of him, DiVincenzo, and Naz Reid could shoot Minnesota past Los Angeles in every game.
The Timberwolves simply have more options, while the Lakers largely go as Doncic goes, with only Dorian Finney-Smith (41.9% on 5.9 attempts per game since March 1) and Gabe Vincent (40% on 5.5 attempts per game) presenting as clear volume threats.
It takes successful volume from beyond the arc to turn a series on its head. P.J. Washington attempting 8.2 threes per game while shooting 46.9% in last year’s Mavericks series against the Thunder, after he took 5.7 per game on 32% shooting in the regular season, is the kind of volume that Los Angeles needs now.
Someone else could emerge unexpectedly alongside Doncic now, but the Timberwolves have more candidates for that role in Reid, Alexander-Walker, and even Mike Conley.
Without a reliable rim-runner, there will be even less spacing for Doncic’s unreliable wing shooters. Meanwhile, the Lakers may struggle to contain Gobert rolling to the rim, thus creating more space for DiVincenzo and Reid to dial in from deep.
