It is an exaggeration to ever say a Game 4 in a 2-1 series is a “must-win.” The New York Knicks do not absolutely need to win tonight, but it certainly does feel like it. They do not want to give home-court advantage back to the Boston Celtics.
My Celtics vs. Knicks props and NBA picks back a couple of New York players, partly by necessity and partly by Boston’s design. Tip comes at 7:30 ET on Monday, May 12.
For more coverage, read our Celtics vs. Knicks predictions!
Best Celtics vs Knicks props
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Towns 15+ rebounds (+230) - Hart Over 1.5 threes (+180)
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Tatum Under 3.5 threes (-140)
Celtics vs Knicks player props for May 12
Karl-Anthony Towns 15+ rebounds (+230 at bet365)
The Knicks did not list Karl-Anthony Towns on the injury report for Game 4, despite him pretty clearly saying during the game he broke the ring finger on his non-shooting hand in Game 3.
Towns evaded questions about the finger in the postgame, so perhaps he was caught in the emotion of the moment in the game, and it was not as bad as a break. But the undeniable fact is, Towns has a finger injury, one susceptible to being aggravated.
But here is another undeniable fact: Anyone doubting Towns’ toughness, anyone calling him a “clown,” has simply not watched the big man’s career, preferring to instead engage in lazy narratives to gain clout.
Towns likely sacrificed some years on the back-end of his career to rush back from a meniscus tear last season to help the Timberwolves reach the Western Conference Finals. He knew the possibilities at hand, and he was willing to do anything to fulfill them.
Expect him to show that toughness again tonight.
Towns was already not shooting well from beyond the arc in this series, just 1 of 7 through three games, and that is a criticism of his lack of aggressiveness when an offense needs it. But he has played aggressively overall, most notably grabbing 15 rebounds per game.
He has reached this rebound total in two of three outings, and given the chances his finger impacts his shooting, Towns may double down on rebounding to impact the game.
Towns’ rebounding prop is set at 11.5 with the Over juiced to -140. That is at least a rebound too low, perhaps representing an overreaction to this finger injury.
It can be too painful to shoot through without being a reflection of KAT's pain tolerance, but some things defy tolerance. He will still crash the boards.
bet365 offers 13+ rebounds at +105, but the allure of +230 at 15+ rebounds is too rich to ignore, particularly given what should be an emphasis tonight — not to mention Towns finding 15+ rebounds in two of three games against the Celtics already.
Josh Hart Over 1.5 threes (+180 at bet365)
Josh Hart finally gave Boston its wish in Game 3 on Saturday. He missed his 3-pointers, going 0-for-3 from deep. More than the zero, the three is worrying. Hart turned down open looks.
Do not expect him to do that again, even if shooting is quite literally what the Celtics want from New York’s worst shooter.
This is a sound defensive strategy from Boston. It is how the Celtics held opponents to just 34.3% from deep after the All-Star Break, the third-best mark in the NBA.
But Hart shot 33.3% from deep this season. If he takes five 3-pointers — a number reached in Game 1 and cleared in Game 2 — he is more likely than not to make at least a pair of them. As Boston abandons Hart in the corner, he will likely take at least five long balls. At that point, the value of +180 must be embraced.
Jayson Tatum Under 3.5 threes (-140 at bet365)
Jayson Tatum went 5 of 9 from deep in Boston’s Game 3 blowout win, the second time in three games he has cleared this prop. Then why is the Under still juiced to -140?
Because Tatum is 22-for-62 from long range in these playoffs, good for 35.5%. Because he has made just 3.1 threes per game in these playoffs. Because he has taken fewer than nine 3-pointers per game in these playoffs.
Tatum has never been an excellent shooter, hitting only 34.3% of his looks from deep this season. And all too often, he's avoided threes in favor of midrange jumpers. Consider that his over-the-top homage to his idol, Kobe Bryant.
The Knicks’ defense did not shine in Game 3. It should regress toward the mean in Game 4, and that will frustrate Tatum enough to drive him back into those midrange jumpers.
Whether he makes those or not does not matter for this prop. Tatum simply taking midrange jumpers helps.
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