The Minnesota Timberwolves suffered more clutch-time losses this regular season than anyone else in the NBA, going 20-26 when games were within five points in the final five minutes. They are now 4-0 in the clutch this postseason thanks to a Game 3 win over the Golden State Warriors that reached the final minutes within two points.
My Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks recognize that was almost assuredly Golden State’s last strong punch. The tip comes at 10 p.m. ET on Monday, May 12.
Who will win Timberwolves vs Warriors Game 4?
If nothing else, Jimmy Butler has an expressive face and personality. The age-old meme of him leaning over a table exhausted by the workload he carried in the 2020 NBA Finals remains popular not only because Butler was putting in effort — playing at least 43 minutes in each of the last five games of that series — but also because he conveyed so much, even with his head down.
Expect plenty of expression on Monday night. A tired face and personality tend to convey more, simply a piece of human nature. And Butler is tired. He played one second less than 43 minutes on Saturday night, took 26 shots, and found seven rebounds, all to score 33 points in a loss.
With his battered pelvis, only so much more can be expected from Butler. He emptied his tank in that loss. And Butler deserves some credit for emptying his tank in that loss. He carried the Golden State Warriors to within spitting distance of a series lead, ultimately falling short.
Unless Butler finds 40 points, the Warriors will not win another game in this series. And asking him to go another 43 minutes while taking 30 shots and scoring 40 points is asking too much.
Prediction: The Minnesota Timberwolves will win.
Timberwolves vs Warriors prediction
My best bet: Timberwolves -9 (+155 at bet365)
Golden State needed Game 3. That was the chance.
The Warriors know they will be underdogs in every game this series until Steph Curry returns, if he returns at all from his hamstring strain. They know two of the remaining four games will be in Minnesota, and the Timberwolves now need to win only twice more.
Golden State got a "Playoff Jimmy" performance — possible only because he is comfortable in front of a home crowd — his 33 points nearly matching his 37 combined from Games 1 and 2 on the road. Minnesota struggled to shoot for much of the game, Anthony Edwards held to eight points in the first half while the Timberwolves racked up 10 turnovers before the break. The Warriors even enjoyed 30 points from Jonathan Kuminga.
Now Butler is zapped. Look, if anyone wants to criticize the man who has burned down three straight franchises upon his exit, it is a Timberwolves season ticket holder. But this is not a criticism of Butler. He poured it all into Game 3. Miami was no longer a team worthy of a playoff run even with Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro, and now Golden State isn't either, with Butler, Draymond Green, and Buddy Hield.
The Timberwolves finally found their shooting stroke in Saturday’s fourth quarter, Edwards seemingly unlocked by his jaw-dropping dunk on Kevon Looney.
ANTHONY EDWARDS HAMMER 🔨pic.twitter.com/2fImLbVsWD
— Covers (@Covers) May 11, 2025
After that dunk, Edwards went 4-for-6 from deep, leading Minnesota to 6-for-10 from beyond the arc in the final 14 minutes to outscore Golden State by 10 in that stretch. Edwards alone scored 18 points in the final 14 minutes, an efficient 6 of 9 including that devastating dunk.
Kuminga scored 13 points in that same stretch on 4-for-8 shooting, but a pair of 3-pointers came in the final minute while the Timberwolves defense retreated, the controversial Warrior otherwise missing his final four shots.
Everything broke Golden State's way and it was not enough. Remove the garbage final minute, and Minnesota would have nearly notched this alternative spread even amid those Butler and Kuminga outbursts while Edwards struggled for so long.
Edwards will no longer struggle. He found his mojo. Butler is exhausted. And the Timberwolves are learning more and more about Kuminga.
Game 3 was the Warriors’ chance. Game 4 should be a blowout.
Timberwolves vs Warriors same-game parlay
Timberwolves -9
Jimmy Butler Under 26.5 points
Draymond Green Under 8.5 points
Butler started strong in Game 3, going 5 of 7 from the field for 11 first-quarter points. His third quarter was similar, halftime’s rest boosting Butler to 10 points on 4 of 6 shooting.
His second and fourth quarters, when fatigue showed, combined for 12 points on 3 of 13 shooting. When realizing how tired Butler should be in Game 4, a letdown should be expected. And, again, for once this is not a criticism of a disloyal coward who has made his entire myth in empty gyms. This is an acknowledgment of how much work he put in on Saturday night, coming back to cost him and the Warriors in Game 4.
If Butler is struggling, it is hard to imagine Golden State staying close. Amidst a humbling blowout, will Green really want to keep playing, or will he assure himself a quick departure to the locker room?
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Timberwolves vs Warriors odds
Timberwolves vs Warriors live odds
Timberwolves vs Warriors opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -6 (-110) | Golden State +6 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -250 | Golden State +205
- Over/Under: Over 199.5 (-110) | Under 199.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread favoring Minnesota by six argues harshly against Golden State mounting a comeback.
- It is not just that the Warriors are two-score underdogs. It is also that the narrative of trailing 2-1 in a series but playing Game 4 at home is not enough to push this spread more than a tick toward Golden State.
- Game 3’s spread hung around -5.5, so slipping to -5 is hardly notable in narrative terms.
- The total establishing itself at 200 needs to simply be chuckled at. The only chance at an Over comes via the Timberwolves’ offense. Then again, it scored 33 points in the fourth quarter on Saturday.
Timberwolves vs Warriors trend
Minnesota has gone 19-8 outright in its last 27 road games, a 22% ROI on moneyline bets for +14.55 units. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Warriors.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Monday, 5-12-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Warriors latest injuries
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