The Memphis Grizzlies lost a hard-fought contest to the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday before bouncing back with a monster win over the Dallas Mavericks to advance to the playoffs. Their reward for that win? A date with the first-place Oklahoma City Thunder at Paycom Center.
My Grizzlies vs. Thunder predictions expect Oklahoma City to handle their business at home and cover a double-digit spread in Game 1.
Read my NBA picks to see why I’m taking the Thunder and the points and how I’m rounding out my three-leg parlay.
Who will win Grizzlies vs Thunder Game 1?
The Thunder are the best team in the West, and they beat Memphis handily four straight times in the regular season. Rested and playing at home, I’ll take the Thunder to win this one comfortably.
Grizzlies vs Thunder prediction
My best bet: Thunder -12.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Oklahoma City Thunder have built a juggernaut, and the team finished with their best record in franchise history at 68-14. Despite missing key players for notable stretches of the season, the Thunder consistently found ways to win.
When fully healthy, OKC isn’t just tough to beat; they’re tough to hang with, too. The Thunder finished the season with the third-best Offensive Rating (119.2) and the best Defensive Rating (106.6). Their 12.7 Net Rating was easily the best in the Association, over three points ahead of the Boston Celtics at 9.4.
The Memphis Grizzlies were no slouches on either end of the court. They finished sixth in Offensive Rating (117.2) and 11th in Defensive Rating (112.6). Memphis’ 4.7 Net Rating was sixth-best in the Association.
Despite a strong season, the Grizzlies weren’t competitive with the Thunder in any of their four head-to-head matchups. Memphis lost to OKC by 24, 13, 17, and 21 and failed to cover in any of those games.
The Grizzlies were only double-digit dogs once this season, and they went 0-1 with a loss to … you guessed it — the Thunder. Memphis went 41-40-1 ATS overall but finished 13-17-1 as the underdog and 10-11-1 as the road dog. The Grizzlies went 7-7 ATS as underdogs of five points or more.
Oklahoma City was a healthy 53-26-4 ATS, including a 27-12-2 mark as the home favorite. The Thunder were favored by at least 12.5 points in 25 games, and they covered the spread in 14 of them.
The Thunder are the superior team on both ends of the court, and I expect their defense to lock down Memphis’ scorers, as they did four times in the regular season. Oklahoma City has won nine straight against the Memphis and covered in eight of them.
The Thunder are well-rested and playing in front of the home crowd, while the Grizzlies just played two Play-In games, and Ja Morant may not be at 100%. I’ll take the home team and the points here.
Grizzlies vs Thunder same-game parlay
Thunder -12.5
Under 226.5
Zach Edey Over 11.5 rebounds
Memphis scored the second-most points per game this season at 121.7, but the Thunder limited the Grizzlies to a 106.3 scoring average across four head-to-head matchups. OKC’s top-ranked defense will be able to slow down Memphis’ lethal scoring attack, and I expect the total to go Under, especially with OKC winning by at least 13 points. Over the last nine head-to-head matchups, the teams are 1-7-1 to the Under.
Over the last eight games, Memphis has given Zach Edey 31 minutes per game, and he’s made the most of them, averaging 15.4 rebounds in that span. Edey has pulled down at least 12 boards in six of eight, including five straight on the road. The Thunder surrendered the eighth-most rebounds to opposing centers this season at 15.4. Edey should see big minutes as the Grizzlies attempt to counter the massive frontcourt of Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. Edey’s rebound line comes in at even money, making it a sweet addition to this parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Grizzlies vs Thunder odds
Grizzlies vs Thunder live odds
Grizzlies vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Memphis +12.5 (-110) | Oklahoma City -12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis +575 | Oklahoma City -850
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Grizzlies vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Grizzlies went 41-40-1 ATS this season.
- The Thunder finished with a 52-26-4 ATS spread record.
- The Grizzlies and Thunder are 1-7-1 to the Under across their last nine head-to-head matchups.
Grizzlies vs Thunder trend
The Oklahoma City Thunder have covered the Spread in 59 of their last 92 games (+27.10 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Thunder.
How to watch Grizzlies vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma |
| Date | Sunday, 4-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Grizzlies vs Thunder latest injuries
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