How many adjustments should the Oklahoma City Thunder make tonight? They were up by three scores with three minutes to go.
The same questions could be asked of the Indiana Pacers. Do they need to adjust so they do not fall behind yet again?
My Pacers vs. Thunder prop picks expect both teams to lean into their strengths before tip-off at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Read more in my NBA picks for Sunday, June 8.
Best Pacers vs Thunder props
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Toppin o1.5 threes (+150 at bet365) -
Holmgren o14.5 points (-115 at bet365) - Caruso o8.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Pacers vs Thunder player props for June 5
Obi Toppin Over 1.5 threes (+150 at bet365)
Going into Game 1, betting on Obi Toppin to hit a single 3-pointer was juiced to -200, but a pair of threes brought you a payout of +220. Toppin then went 5-of-8 from deep to surprisingly take an early series lead in the 3-pointers made market.
Oddsmakers have since adjusted the Indiana Pacers forward’s shooting prop. Toppin’s Over/Under is now set at 1.5 outright, with the Over priced at +150. But have they adjusted enough? Considering this bet was almost entered as 3+ 3-pointers at +450, let’s say no.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have allowed corner 3-point attempts more often than any other team in the NBA this season. Meanwhile, Toppin has made 47% of his corner threes this postseason, continuing his regular-season success when he hit 45% of his corner shots (54-of-120) while taking them on a full 20% of his field-goal attempts.
As long as multiple 3-pointers from Toppin are priced at plus-money, it is a value that demands to be bet. Oklahoma City encourages the exact shot he excels at.
And of any coming tweaks from the Thunder, the most fundamental piece of their defense should remain untouched. Altering that after a one-point loss would be an overreaction.
Chet Holmgren Over 14.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Chet Holmgren may not have been ready for the moment. He went 2-of-9 from the field in more than 23 minutes, grabbing only six rebounds to go with his six points. No single player ever warrants sole blame for a loss — Jalen Williams went 6-of-19; Alex Caruso went 3-of-8 — but Holmgren has undoubtedly felt some regret since Game 1.
He was just 2-of-8 in the paint, but that will change tonight.
Even if Holmgren struggles again, Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault should play him more. The combination of Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein provides Oklahoma City size that Indiana struggles to combat.
It is not a coincidence that the Thunder led by eight with 3:24 when Diagneault subbed out Holmgren on Thursday.
Holmgren should play far more than 23 minutes tonight, and he will take more than nine shots and make more than two in the paint.
Every piece of that logic is a step toward at least 15 points.
Alex Caruso Over 8.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Alex Caruso is the only Thunder player with title experience. He was a rotation piece for the Lakers in the 2020 bubble, and his role is only bigger now.
It was not entirely an auspicious return to the Finals for Caruso, going 3-of-8 from the field for 11 points, but he also grabbed six rebounds and snagged three steals. So even in a lesser night, Caruso both cleared this prop and filled the stat sheet.
He was 0-of-3 on corner 3s, something that should shift given Caruso shot 42% from the corner this regular season. He was at an even 40% this postseason before Thursday’s struggles.
Caruso’s ability to fill the stat sheet demands he see continued playing time, no matter what adjustments Daigneault may make. Of the six Thunder players to see more than 20 minutes on Thursday, only Caruso, Holmgren, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander posted pluses in the plus/minus column. They were not the worries.
And if Caruso can hit a corner 3 in his minutes, he should easily clear this points prop for a second game in a row and 12th time this postseason.
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