The Miami Heat have gone just 1-4 outright and 1-3-1 against the spread since Jimmy Butler was traded. Butler was not making Miami better, but perhaps his distraction was not as problematic as made out to be.
Despite those struggles, my Heat vs. Bucks predictions and NBA picks expect one of Miami’s mainstays to star against that lackluster perimeter defense. Tip comes at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 23.
Heat vs Bucks prediction
My best bet
Tyler Herro Over 23.5 points (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
The Milwaukee Bucks' defense seems acceptable. No one would call it good, but its defensive rating of No. 19 in the last month of games — stretching back to Jan. 16 to account for the All-Star Break — is far from embarrassing.
Then again, that is a defense led by Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo. It should be one of the NBA’s best, not near the bottom third. This was the long-term cost of trading Jrue Holliday for Damian Lillard. The Bucks traded a championship-winning defense for postseason offensive variance.
And it was a mistake.
Doubling down on that mistake by moving Khris Middleton for Kyle Kuzma has not helped. Middleton may not have been healthy, but the defensive emphasis he encouraged was needed.
While Lillard is not an exemplary defender, his struggles with a balky hamstring led Milwaukee to start AJ Green and Ryan Rollins at guard on Friday. These are the reasons why recent weeks have seen Tyrese Maxey score 39 points against the Bucks, Nick Smith Jr. enjoy 23 points, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander pour in 34, Desmond Bane notch 22, and Stephon Castle ease his way to 20 points.
Tyler Herro is a more natural scorer than at least three of those names, and he'll show it tonight.
Heat vs Bucks same-game parlay
Tyler Herro Over 23.5 points
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 threes
Bucks -5.5
Asking Herro to make at least four 3-pointers while he scores at least 24 points is a correlated thought. Since New Year’s, the Bucks have given up 40.8 attempts from deep per game, the third-most in the NBA.
The 3-Point Contest champion is not someone to give those looks to.
But even with Herro scoring, do not expect the Miami Heat to cruise. The Heat are firmly on the treadmill of mediocrity, and going 2-7-1 ATS since Jan. 28 inspires only doubt.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Heat vs Bucks odds
Heat vs Bucks live odds
Heat vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Miami +4.5 | Milwaukee -4.5
- Moneyline: Miami +160 | Milwaukee -190
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday afternoon, a spread that reached -5 by Saturday night and then -5.5 on Sunday morning.
- The total opened at 224.5 on Saturday afternoon, falling to 220.5 by the night's end before a Sunday morning rally to 221.5.
- Some of that total’s fall could be attributed to Herro being day-to-day with a shoulder worry.
Heat vs Bucks trend
Milwaukee has gone 2-0 both outright and against the spread against Miami this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Bucks.
How to watch Heat vs Bucks
| Location | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin |
| Date | Sunday, 2-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network-SU, FanDuel Sports Network-Wisconsin |
Heat vs Bucks latest injuries
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