It’s a great SEC contest when Oklahoma and Auburn clash, with both teams putting their undefeated seasons on the line.
We’ve identified our three best college football picks for this nationally televised matchup in my Auburn vs. Oklahoma prop picks for Saturday, September 20th.
Auburn vs Oklahoma props for Week 4
Jackson Arnold Under 42.5 rushing yards (-114)- Jackson Arnold Over 174.5 passing yards (-114)
John Mateer anytime TD (-140)
Prop bet #1: Jackson Arnold Under 42.5 rushing yards
This total is too high.
Over the past decade, Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables’ name has been associated with one thing: defense. His success at Clemson was built on taking away the opponent’s biggest strength, forcing them to win differently. For Auburn, a major part of its offense is Arnold’s legs, so I expect the Sooners to focus on limiting him.
The early defensive profile for Oklahoma is strong across the board, ranking in the top 20% in havoc. That provides confidence that if we need a sack late to knock off yardage, we’ll likely get it. It doesn’t hurt that Venables knows Jackson Arnold’s tendencies well—he was the Sooners’ quarterback just last year.
Prop bet #2: Jackson Arnold Over 174.5 passing yards
This play directly correlates with the under on his rushing yards. I expect Auburn to trail throughout, forcing Arnold to throw from the pocket rather than rely on his legs. That should lead to enough passing volume to clear this low number.
Arnold has topped this number only once, in a blowout win over Ball State when he ran for fewer than 10 yards. Oklahoma’s defense doesn’t have a glaring weakness, so this bet isn’t about matchup advantages. It’s about volume and game script. Auburn’s receivers are good enough to help him reach this mark if they’re playing from behind.
Michigan’s Bryce Underwood nearly cleared this total in his first true road start against Oklahoma with only nine completions. Auburn’s passing weapons are more dynamic, and I expect Arnold to throw enough to get there, especially if the Sooners force him into a pass-heavy approach.
Prop bet #3: John Mateer anytime TD
This might not immediately scream value, but when fair odds should be around -200, it becomes my favorite bet on the board.
John Mateer’s return to Oklahoma has been a storybook one—he’s delivered big moments all season and even entered the Heisman conversation. I expect him to be heavily involved in the red zone here.
Auburn’s rushing defense hasn’t been tested much, yet its explosiveness rating sits around average even against weaker opponents. That’s a red flag with Oklahoma’s offense up next. Mateer has already proven he’s the Sooners’ go-to option near the goal line, and with Oklahoma favored to win, I expect multiple red-zone trips.
Given his rushing role and Auburn’s defensive concerns, Mateer finding the end zone feels like a strong bet. I’d comfortably play this to -175, as the odds suggest solid value compared to his expected usage and scoring chances in this matchup.
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