Two Big Ten teams will get their first real tests of the season on Saturday as the Indiana Hoosiers host the Illinois Fighting Illini at Memorial Stadium.
In this battle of undefeated teams, I’m targeting weaknesses on both defenses to find player prop picks in my Illinois vs. Indiana predictions.
Let’s take a closer look at the best props available for this Top 25 matchup in my college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Illinois vs Indiana props for Week 4
Mendoza o250.5 passing yards (-114)
Feagin o60.5 rushing yards (-114)- Sarratt u4.5 receptions (-108)
Prop bet #1: Fernando Mendoza Over 250.5 passing yards
Both teams have faced little resistance over their first three games, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn something from the early-season results. In the case of the Illinois Fighting Illini, we’ve seen the Illini allow opponents to gain 6.3 yards per passing attempt.
That’s a number that would be decent against intense competition, but concerning when they’ve held their weaker opposition to completing just 56.5% of passes.
Opponents are compensating by gaining 11.2 yards per completion against the Illinois defense. That could be a problem against an efficient and explosive Indiana Hoosiers passing attack that is averaging 284 yards per game despite only throwing the ball an average of 30 times in its first three wins.
Junior quarterback Fernando Mendoza hasn’t had to throw the ball much yet, but he should produce more offense in a close game where Illinois may have the lead for much of the day. We saw Mendoza go Over 250.5 yards in seven of his last eight games in 2024 with the California Golden Bears, and he has a great chance to get above the total again this week.
Prop bet #2: Kaden Feagin Over 60.5 rushing yards
If Illinois has had some question marks about its ability to stop the passing game, Indiana has similarly struggled to contain the run. While the likes of the Kennesaw State Owls and the Indiana State Sycamores couldn’t throw the ball against the Hoosiers, opponents have averaged a solid 4.0 yards per carry against the Indiana front – a number that will likely get even worse against more dangerous opponents.
Junior running back Kaden Feagin is the rusher most likely to capitalize on that weakness on Saturday. The Illinois runner picked up 100 yards on the ground against the Western Michigan Broncos last weekend, and has already gone Over 60.5 yards rushing twice this season.
Indiana has already allowed one runner to go off for 179 yards (Colton Joseph of the Old Dominion Monarchs) this season, and Feagin is certainly capable of breaking a long run or two on Saturday. That makes him a great bet to his Over.
Prop bet #3: Elijah Sarratt Under 4.5 receptions
While I generally like targeting Indiana’s passing game on Saturday, I believe there’s one area where the oddsmakers have unrealistic expectations. Senior wide receiver Elijah Sarrat has gotten off to a fast start for the Hoosiers, catching 15 balls for 164 yards and three touchdowns in his first three games in 2025.
But most of that production – all three scores and nine of his catches – came in a 56-9 throttling of Kennesaw State. He has just two catches in each of the other two games Indiana has played this year.
Looking back to his junior year, Sarratt’s usage was inconsistent. He only caught as many as five balls in four of his 13 games in 2024. Two of those were in games where Indiana won by 66 and 74 points, respectively – not exactly the tight battles that will give us insight into what Saturday’s game with Illinois might look like.
That history has me expecting Sarratt to make his mark on the game with a couple more meaningful catches rather than tons of targets. I’m taking the Under on his reception total.
Bet on CFB at FanDuel!
Make your college football bets at FanDuel, America's No. 1 sportsbook! Sign up now and by placing $5 on your first bet, you could win $300 in bonus bets if your wager is a winner!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
