The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have developed a pattern under Greg Schiano: start strong, then stumble once Big Ten play begins.
They’ll look to break that cycle tonight as they kick off conference play under the lights against the Iowa Hawkeyes — but I’m not betting on it.
My Iowa vs. Rutgers predictions favor the Hawkeyes to stick to their script and control this game the way they usually do—with stifling defense.
Check out my college football picks for this Big Ten throwdown on Friday, September 19. And for more on this game, check out Jason Ence's Iowa vs. Rutgers props!
Iowa vs Rutgers prediction
Iowa vs Rutgers best bet: Iowa -2.5 (-118)
This is a really captivating matchup to kick off Big Ten play on Friday night.
Rutgers begins the season 3-0 for the third-straight year, but has finished each of the past two years 7-6. Which means the Scarlet Knights have played pretty soft non-con schedules. This year was similar, with the only tough matchup coming against the Ohio Bobcats from the MAC.
The Scarlet Knights won that game 34-31as 15.5-point favorites, but the Bobcats scampered for over 200 yards, including giving up 93 to QB Parker Navarro, and the Hawkeyes need to get their own QB going.
It’s been more of what we’ve come to expect from Iowa this season. An excellent defense that gets no support from an underwhelming offense.
That was supposed to change with transfer QB Mark Gronowski. The former South Dakota State Jackrabbits star, who won two national championships at the FCS level, has looked a little overwhelmed in his first three games with an FBS team, throwing for just 306 yards and averaging 2.7 yards per carry.
This is a guy who averaged 8.7 yards per attempt and rushed for over 1,700 yards over four seasons with the Jackrabbits. I expect the Hawkeyes to really try and get Gronowski going in this one, particularly on the ground.
But the strength of this Hawkeyes team will once again be its defense. The Hawkeyes rank 30th in defensive success rate and are fourth in opponent yards per play.
Rutgers has been hucking it on offense, but it has yet to face a defense at the level of Iowa. At less than a field goal, I’ll back that defense to be the difference here.
Iowa vs Rutgers same-game parlay
Iowa has never really been known for its offensive output with Kirk Ferentz as the head coach, but I think they have an opportunity to at the very least be effective with Gronoswki. Particularly, if he can start running the ball against a Rutgers defense that has given up 5.6 yards per carry this season.
Gronowksi is a guy who rushed for at least 380 yards in each of his four seasons at South Dakota State, averaging 4.7 yards per carry in the process. And if Gronowski can get going on the ground, it will open up the passing game, and in turn help the Hawkeyes cover the 2.5-point chalk.
And even despite his struggles, he's still gone Over this number twice in three games this season.
Now, we do have to note Rutgers’ passing attack. QB Athan Kaliakmanis has been impressive and has spread the ball around to his receivers well. If the Scarlet Knights find the end zone through the air, I like KJ Duff to be on the receiving end.
Duff is a big-bodied receiver sitting at 6-foot-6 and could use his size to his advantage in the redzone against Iowa. Duff has 17 catches on 23 targets for 244 yards and two touchdowns.
Iowa vs Rutgers SGP
- Iowa -2.5
- Mark Gronowski Over 26.5 rushing yards
- KJ Duff touchdown
Our deep-ball SGP: Gronowski having his way
Iowa finally started to open things up with Gronowski last week. He went 16-for-24 for 173 yards.
Rutgers ranks 113th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
Iowa vs Rutgers SGP
- Iowa -2.5
- Mark Gronowski Over 26.5 rushing yards
- Mark Gronowski Over 127.5 passing yards
- KJ Duff touchdown
Iowa vs Rutgers game predictions
Iowa vs Rutgers moneyline prediction
Rutgers is off to another solid start this season, and have been passing the ball more than we've been used to. But they have yet to be tested and this looks like another elite Iowa defense. That will be the difference in a Hawkeyes win.
Iowa vs Rutgers spread prediction
I already like the Hawkeyes to win, so with a spread this small it should come as no surprise I'm taking them to cover as well. Particularly, at less than a field goal.
Iowa vs Rutgers Over/Under prediction
This is a relatively high total for an Iowa game. So, my gut its to take the Under. Even if the Hawkeyes try some new wrinkles on offense, this is still Iowa.The Hawkeyes will control the tempo of the game with their rushing attack and defense. Which will drain the clock, resulting in a classic Iowa Under.
Iowa vs Rutgers odds
- Spread: Iowa -1.5 | Rutgers +1.5
- Moneyline: Iowa -126 | Rutgers +105
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Iowa vs Rutgers trend to know
Iowa has hit the 1Q Under in seven of their last 11 games for +3.65 Units and a 27% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs Rutgers.
How to watch Iowa vs Rutgers
| Location | SHI Stadium, Piscataway, NJ |
| Date | Friday, September 19, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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