The Denver Nuggets will be looking to take advantage of home court on Saturday night as they host the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 7 of their Western Conference playoff series.
These teams have no shortage of stars that will be looking to make a difference tonight, which makes this a great game to target for NBA player props.
I’ll look at Nikola Jokic, James Harden, and more in my free NBA picks for Saturday, May 3.
Best Clippers vs Nuggets props
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Jokic o50.5 PRA (-115) -
Harden u21.5 points (-130) - Murray o6.5 assists (+115)
Clippers vs Nuggets player props for May 3
Nikola Jokic Over 50.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at bet365)
Does anyone seriously doubt that Nikola Jokic will have a huge game in terms of stats in a decisive Game 7? Win or lose, Jokic is the engine that fires an offense that’s among the best in the NBA, but only when he’s on the court.
Jokic has played 42+ minutes in four of the first six games of this series, and I’m sure the Denver Nuggets will look to give him at least that much playing time again on Saturday. As usual, his production has warranted that much usage, as he’s averaging 25.3 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game so far in this series.
That’s not quite enough to hit the Over on his combined total tonight, but that’s largely because of one game: a relatively quiet Game 5, in which Jokic scored only 13 points while still managing to put up a triple-double.
There’s no way the Nuggets won’t be pounding the ball into their perennial MVP candidate in Game 7. Los Angeles might approach the defensive challenge in various ways, either attempting to make Jokic beat them as a primary scorer or forcing him to give up the ball quickly by doubling early. Either way, Jokic will fill up the box score, which has me backing the Over on his PRA combo prop tonight.
James Harden Under 21.5 points (-130 at bet365)
Even in his age-35 season, James Harden remains an elite scorer, putting up 22.8 ppg in the regular season, but he hasn’t been quite so consistent against the Nuggets, who have held Harden down, especially as the series has gone on.
While Harden opened with an outstanding 32-point performance in Game 1, he's never reached those heights again during the series. He's only gone Over 20 points once in the last five games, while the Los Angeles Clippers have relied more heavily on Kawhi Leonard (25.5 ppg) and spread the ball around to secondary options like Ivica Zubac (18.7 ppg) and Norman Powell (17.2 ppg).
I imagine that Los Angeles will take that same balanced approach in Game 7, using their multitude of weapons rather than forcing Leonard and (especially) Harden to carry the entire load. With his scoring prop set at a somewhat generous 21.5, I’m loving the Under strictly because of how many shots I expect Harden to put up.
Jamal Murray Over 6.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
One popular strategy that some teams have employed against the Nuggets in the postseason over the last few years has been attempting to turn Jokic into a pure scorer, rather than letting him distribute the ball and run the offense in the fashion that has proven so hard to contain.
If the Clippers decide to explore that route in Game 7, the Over on Jamal Murray’s assist total seems like one of the best bets on the board.
Even if L.A. plays things more straight up, there’s a lot to like about this bet at a plus-money price. Murray is averaging 6.5 assists for the series and has gone for 7+ assists in the last three games. And while Murray disappointed at times during the regular season, it seems like he is back to his old ways in the playoffs, where he has averaged a more robust 6.2 assists per game for his career.
This is a reasonable total, and there are certainly game scenarios where Murray doesn’t get the opportunity to get seven assists for the game. Still, based on how this series has been played, his postseason history, and the likely way Game 7 will be played, I think Murray will more than likely reach this mark — and when we’re getting plus money on what I think should be the favored side, that’s an opportunity we can’t pass up.
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