The Los Angeles Clippers head into a monster Game 7 tonight with the deeper roster and a healthy Kawhi Leonard — yet the baggage of James Harden’s past elimination game no-shows still looms large.
To his credit, Harden was terrific against the Denver Nuggets on Thursday, scoring 28 points to help L.A. keep the series alive, but there’s a long list of playoff demons to banish from his days with Houston and Philadelphia.
My NBA picks are putting the spotlight on the latest James Harden odds, headlined by a wager on 'The Beard' chipping in on the glass.
James Harden player prop picks
- Best bet
Harden Over 5.5 rebounds
(-115) - SGP pick
Harden Over 5.5 rebounds
Harden Under 8.5 assists
Harden Over 2.5 threes
(+700)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
James Harden best bet
James Harden Over 5.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
It would probably take a run to the NBA Finals for James Harden to fully shake off the ghosts of postseasons past, but a big game against the Denver Nuggets would be a giant step in the right direction.
The good news for the Los Angeles Clippers is that they don’t need peak Harden tonight. Kawhi Leonard knows his way around a Game 7 — who could forget his four-bounce game-winner for the Toronto Raptors — and Harden can settle in as a productive sidekick.
That said, it’s fair to be skeptical about his offensive numbers in a winner-takes-all matchup. So, with his points prop O/U line at 20.5, I’m sitting that one out and focusing on his rebounds tally instead.
Harden has gone past this 5.5 O/U line in four of the six games so far in this series, including two of the three outings at Ball Arena, and he’s among the likeliest Clippers to swoop in while Ivica Zubac and Nikola Jokic battle it out for prime position in the paint.
Even if we get a more passive version of Harden, as we did in Game 5, the opportunities to grab boards and control the start of possessions should be there. He’s not going to be chasing Jamal Murray around on the perimeter, and he can afford to sag off Christian Braun for a head-start on any loose rebounds.
Harden averaged 5.8 rebounds per game in the regular season, and now his minutes have climbed in the playoff cauldron, including 47 minutes in Game 6.
That’s enough for me to pick 'The Beard' to cash the Over tonight.
James Harden same-game parlay
James Harden Over 5.5 rebounds
James Harden Under 8.5 assists
James Harden Over 2.5 threes
Harden has been shadowed by Braun in this series, and I expect the Nuggets to do a better job of cutting off Harden’s driving lanes in Game 7. That should mean fewer five-alarm fires where the hosts are scrambling in rotation, and fewer easy passes for Harden to open shooters.
In turn, that could shift more of the offense into Kawhi’s hands for iso-heavy possessions, so I’m adding the Under on Harden assists for my SGP. He’s fallen short of this 8.5 number in his last two outings despite the big minutes load, and his Game 6 exertions may take a toll as the contest progresses.
However, there’s every reason to expect Harden to let it fly from beyond the arc. He’s had 8+ attempts from 3-point range in four of the six games against Denver, and that’s always the fallback option from him if he’s not getting to the rim or the free-throw line.
Harden is shooting 38% from downtown in this series, and the ball tends to end up in his hands on the perimeter in late-clock situations. This is a nice price for Over 2.5 made 3-pointers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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