It doesn't get much better for NBA fans than tonight's Game 7 clash between the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers.
Nikola Jokic will try to carry the Denver Nuggets on his back in a must-win game. That said, my NBA picks are fading the three-time MVP on his points total against a defensively stingy Clippers squad.
Here are my best free NBA picks for the latest Nikola Jokic odds, with tip-off set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 3.
Nikola Jokic player prop picks
- Best bet
Jokic Under 28.5 points
(-110) - SGP pick
Jokic Under 28.5 points
Nuggets moneyline
Jokic 1+ threes
(+400)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Nikola Jokic best bet
Nikola Jokic Under 28.5 points (-110 at bet365)
The Denver Nuggets will need Nikola Jokic to be at his best tonight, but he'll be hard-pressed to eclipse his points total of 28.5. The Los Angeles Clippers had the third-best defensive rating in the NBA during the regular season (109.4) and allowed the fourth-fewest points per game (108.2).
They've been particularly tough to score against inside, with center Ivica Zubac finishing sixth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Nobody can stop Jokic, but the 7-foot, 240-pound Zubac is more capable than anybody else at slowing him down.
Not only do the Clippers play hard-nosed defense, but this series has been played at a sluggish tempo. The pace of 91.5 is the second-slowest among all first-round matchups and is about 5% lower than the slowest team in the NBA during the regular season.
Jokic has been held below 28.5 points in four of six games this series, and in one of the games where he eclipsed this number, he needed overtime.
Nikola Jokic same-game parlay
Jokic Under 28.5 points
Nuggets moneyline
Jokic 1+ threes
The counter-intuitive nature of betting the Under on Jokic's points, along with a threes prop and a Nuggets win, creates a nice payout on this parlay.
The Nuggets are 2.5-point faves and have the best home-court advantage in the sport thanks to the altitude in Denver. They went 25-11 at home with Jokic in the lineup during the regular season and took two of three games in Denver this series.
While I'm betting on Jokic to go below his points total, that doesn't mean he won't lead the Nuggets to a victory. After all, he averaged a triple-double during the regular season, and there are many ways he can impact the game. If Jokic dominates the glass and facilitates for his teammates, there's a strong chance Denver could still get the win.
Keep in mind that Jokic averaged fewer points per game (28.9) in wins during the regular season than he did in defeats (31.0 ppg). The Nuggets perform better when their supporting cast is playing well and don't need Jokic to carry the scoring burden.
While Jokic won't find it easy to score on the interior against Zubac, he should get open looks on the perimeter. Jokic averaged 2.0 threes per game on a career-high 41.7 3PT% during the regular season. He has knocked down at least one triple in every game this series and has hit 1+ threes in 14 of 15 games dating back to the regular season.
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