As of Tuesday afternoon, the Game 5 status of Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum is up in the air for a home matchup with the New York Knicks. But for anyone who watched Tatum go down late in Game 4, you know things don’t look good.
The NBA odds are a little more optimistic, at least when it comes to Boston’s chances of staying alive. The Celtics opened as 4.5-point home favorites after Monday’s loss, and that has since moved up to -5.
My Knicks vs. Celtics predictions believe that if Boston is going to avoid elimination — likely without Tatum on the floor — it needs a monster game from Jaylen Brown, who will have the green light on offense in Game 5.
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Who will win Knicks vs Celtics Game 5?
The outright odds give the Celtics an implied win probability around 68% for Game 5, but I’m not biting. Boston doesn’t have the killer instinct to put the Knicks away, and losing Tatum for Game 5 or beyond is a gut punch the C’s can't recover from. New York wins.
Knicks vs Celtics prediction
My best bet: Jaylen Brown 3+ made 3-pointers (+160 at bet365)
Come hell or high water — or a dwindling lead — the Boston Celtics are going to shoot threes.
Boston is the epitome of “live by the three, die by the three” and is firing up 47 3-point attempts per game so far in this series, including 48 shots from distance in Game 4.
Before going down, Jayson Tatum was accountable for 16 of those long range looks on Monday, knocking down seven triples for his biggest outpouring of the postseason. He’s averaging more than 11 3-point shots per game, and those are going to trickle down to the remaining Celtics in Game 5.
Jaylen Brown isn’t shooting the ball particularly well versus the New York Knicks, firing at a 22.6% clip from 3-point land. He’s making fewer than two 3-pointers on almost eight chucks from distance per game, but will see his activity from outside soar with Tatum’s touches up for grabs.
When Tatum missed Game 2 versus Orlando in Round 1 with a wrist injury, Brown knocked down 5 of 7 attempts from outside against a very stingy 3-point defense.
Brown is a bit of a home body, which helps his cause with Game 5 in TD Garden. On the season, he averaged 24.5 points at home (versus 19.4 on the road) and averaged 2.2 3-pointers on 5.9 attempts in Boston (36.8%) compared to 1.4 on 5.4 3PAs (26.8%) away from Beantown.
Brown has made at least two triples in three straight games and in three of his last four postseason outings. Projections aren’t running over with 3-pointers from Brown in Game 5, but considering the potential for more pop from downtown, this +160 return on 3+ triples has life.
His Over/Under 3-pointers prop is bouncing between 1.5 and 2.5 with the Over 1.5 priced as high as -203. Given that market pulse and projections, Brown is going to make two 3-pointers. And, given the circumstances, he'll have the surplus of attempts to make three.
Knicks vs Celtics same-game parlay
Jaylen Brown 3+ made 3-pointers
Al Horford 10+ points
Knicks +5.5
With Tatum likely out of action, Brown becomes the No. 1 stunner and gets those extra looks from long range.
Al Horford will also play a bigger role in the offense with Tatum out. He’s projected for as many as 12 points in Game 5.
Oddsmakers are asking a lot of the Celtics in this one. Elimination stares them in the face, but New York just won’t go away.
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Knicks vs Celtics odds
Knicks vs Celtics live odds
Knicks vs Celtics opening odds
- Spread: New York +4.5 | Boston -4.5
- Moneyline: New York +174 | Boston -196
- Over/Under: Over 208.5 | Under 208.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Knicks vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
• Boston opened as a 4.5-point home favorite as bookies brace for official news on Tatum’s Game 5 status. That number jumped to Celtics -5 with early action banking on Boston putting up a fight with its collective back on the ropes.
• The Over/Under total opened at 208.5 and slipped to 208. The first four games of the series have produced a 1-2-1 O/U count.
• Covers Consensus shows 52% of picks taking the points with New York in Game 5 while 63% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Knicks vs Celtics trend
The Knicks won outright on the moneyline in 24 of their last 35 away games (+12.65 Units/16% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Celtics.
How to watch Knicks vs Celtics
| Location | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Knicks vs Celtics latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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