If not for 6.5 minutes of offensive doldrums to close the first half in Game 3, even more praise would be falling on the Minnesota Timberwolves right now.
The end of that second quarter, a stretch in which the Golden State Warriors’ zone defense caused too many problems to count, has effectively hidden an offensive explosion that has thoroughly outpaced Golden State’s already slim hopes.
My Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions expect Minnesota to ride that offense to a Game 5 win and a spot in the Western Conference Finals.
Find out more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, May 14.
Who will win Warriors vs Timberwolves Game 5?
After the Warriors gave everything they had to lose by five points in Game 3, this series was effectively over. They mounted a competitive first half in Game 4, but then the Timberwolves hit the gas with a 17-0 run in the third quarter.
Draymond Green might insist Jimmy Butler was sick in Game 4, but taking only nine shot attempts in 34 minutes spoke to more of a resignation than an illness. Butler did not impact the game in any way, posting a -30 in the +/- column to emphasize his ineffectiveness.
Without Butler at his absolute best and Steph Curry still sidelined, Golden State does not have enough offense to keep up with anyone this postseason.
Minnesota takes care of business and advances to the conference finals on Wednesday.
Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet: Timberwolves team total Over 107.5 (-115 at bet365)
The Minnesota Timberwolves did not hit a field goal for the final 6.5 minutes before halftime in Game 3.
Julius Randle hit a 3-pointer to take a 39-29 lead at the 6:30 mark, and then the Golden State Warriors ripped off a 13-1 run. The Timberwolves went 0-of-5 from deep and 0-of-9 from the field while committing three turnovers.
Compare that to the 14 minutes following Anthony Edwards’s dramatic dunk on Kevon Looney near the end of that third quarter. Including those minutes before halftime, Minnesota had managed just 23 points in 16.5 minutes; it then poured in 40 in the final 14, going 6-of-10 from deep and 12-of-21 from the field.
That surge continued in Game 4, the Timberwolves’ 117 points not properly appreciated because of some Wolves’ contentment with a massive lead.
Look at the 50 minutes from Edwards’s dunk through the end of Game 4’s third quarter. Obviously, that is two minutes longer than a game.
In that stretch of focus, Minnesota went 22-of-41 from deep, 53.7%, while shooting 54.0% overall to score 137 points.
Edwards scored 48 points in those 50 minutes, going 10-of-17 from deep (58.8%) and 58.6% overall. The Timberwolves’ four best players — Edwards, Randle, Jaden McDaniels, and Naz Reid — combined to go 17-of-30 from beyond the arc in those 50 minutes (56.7%) and 57.8% overall to score 102 points.
It is not like those four played all 50 minutes. Edwards led the way with 43:27, Randle at 42 minutes, McDaniels playing a touch more than 39, and Reid at 28.
Those are not lofty because of the additional two minutes in this sample. They are lofty because these are the playoffs.
Each of them has cleared that workload in multiple nights this postseason, except for Randle, who has seen more than 40 minutes in four of nine games.
In that piecemealed game of offense, Minnesota proved it has figured out what works against the best defense following the All-Star Break. Separately, Games 3 and 4 did not properly emphasize how successful that offense has become.
But from Ant’s evisceration of Looney up until the comedy of Monday’s fourth quarter, it is clear that the Timberwolves can break this Warriors’ defense.
Minnesota should continue to do so at home to clinch a postseason series in front of a home crowd for the first time in 21 years.
Warriors vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Timberwolves team total Over 107.5
Anthony Edwards 30+ points
Jaden McDaniels 15+ points
Sure, time could be spent here once again reminding the world that Jimmy Butler would rather not play at Target Center, and when he has to play there, he pouts his way through a poor performance. Someone who struggles in front of adverse crowds should probably not have personally alienated 10% of the NBA’s fanbases by burning down their franchises upon his bed-wetting exits.
That time would remind folks that in four games in front of Target Center crowds since he ran away from a playoff team, Butler has averaged 16.25 points on 37% shooting, including 29% from deep.
But if the Timberwolves are going to win a playoff series in front of home fans for the first time in more than two decades, let’s celebrate them doing so.
Edwards has reached this milestone in each of the last two games, part of how he scored 48 points in that emphasized 50-minute stretch. He has rediscovered his shot, going 10-of-17 from deep in that stretch. Trust him to put an exclamation point on this before a few days off.
Meanwhile, McDaniels’s pettiness likes to show up in the moments of greatest glory. He infamously dunked on the Suns as time expired amid a sweep last postseason, part of how he averaged 20.5 in two clinching games. He has reached this milestone in two games this series, again making the plus-money aspect of it rather delightful.
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Warriors vs Timberwolves odds
Warriors vs Timberwolves live odds
Warriors vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +11.5 | Minnesota -11.5
- Moneyline: Golden State +475 | Minnesota -650
- Over/Under: Over 204.0 | Under 204.0
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Moving a spread by seven points when homecourt edges flip may be aggressive, but the clinching nature of this Game 5 — combined with Golden State’s likely resignation — adds some context.
- The Timberwolves have gone 3-0 against the spread in the last three games of this series, all since Steph Curry was sidelined with a strained hamstring.
- The total ticking upward to 204 (after closing at 201.5 for Game 4) is a testament entirely to Minnesota’s offense.
Warriors vs Timberwolves trend
Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in clinching games over the last two postseasons, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 10.67 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Warriors vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Warriors vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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