The Denver Nuggets may have a 2-1 series lead in their Round 2 series vs. the OKC Thunder, but it’s come despite Nikola Jokic struggling to find his game.
After a rough 8-for-25 shooting night in Game 3 — and two straight games at 20 points or less — is the three-time MVP losing steam, or are we just getting the stage set for some value in the Nikola Jokic odds?
My NBA picks for Sunday, May 11 believe it's the latter.
Nikola Jokic player prop picks
- Best bet
Nikola Jokic Over 27.5 points
(-120) - SGP pick
Nikola Jokic Over 27.5 points
Nikola Jokic Under 8.5 assists
Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 made 3-pointers
(+320)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Nikola Jokic best bet
Nikola Jokic Over 27.5 points (-120 at bet365)
The NBA is a fickle place.
We’re seriously just two games removed from a Nikola Jokic 42-point, 22-rebound, 6-assist gem in Game 1, and after two sub-par performances (by his own lofty expectations), the books have dropped his scoring line to 27.5 points.
If you’ve been following prop lines, you’ll know that dropping Jokic down even a point seems ludicrous, as he’s the entire Denver engine.
Only twice in the regular season did Jokic put up back-to-back games of 20 points or less, so we should be confident he’s posting something above the 20-point plateau today.
We also know that Denver can’t continue to support its big man like this. Aaron Gordon has played out of his mind these playoffs, already with a game-winning dunk, plus a game-winning three and a game-tying triple against OKC.
Michael Porter Jr. just hung 21 in Game 3 after 10 points through the first two games, and Jamal Murray also posted a series-high with 27.
It’s time for Jokic to get back to destroying opponents.
Nikola Jokic same-game parlay
Nikola Jokic Over 27.5 points
Nikola Jokic Under 8.5 assists
Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 made 3-pointers
On top of a big scoring night, we’re going to keep Jokic Under his 8.5 assist total, a figure he has failed to cross now in five straight playoff games.
It appears to be a combination of teammates missing shots and opponents forcing him to be one dimensional, which is a massive plus for the defense.
It’s just the second time all season he’s gone five straight games without recording at least one game with double-digits assists.
The Thunder are doing some things right, and limiting Jokic’s playmaking is a biggie.
Just by the law of averages, Jokic has to be better from 3-point range than he was in Game 3, when he failed to connect from downtown on 10 attempts.
That’s by far his worst shooting night from distance this season, and I like him finding the range in Denver’s current most important game of the season.
He shot a career-best 41.7% from 3-point range in the regular season, the first time Jokic cracked the 40% plateau. I’m more than happy to bet on the bounce back.
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