A series that some thought would be effectively over by this point now sees the Oklahoma City Thunder needing a win to even things up against the Denver Nuggets in Game 4 today.
Both Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had down games in Game 3, so I’ll be looking at how they’ll respond today in my Thunder vs. Nuggets props. Read on to see why I’m also targeting a Chet Holmgren prop in my free NBA picks for Sunday, May 11.
Best Thunder vs Nuggets props
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Jokic u50.5 pts + rebs + asts (-115) -
SGA o38.5 pts + rebs (-115) - Holmgren o2.5 blks (-135)
Thunder vs Nuggets player props for May 11
Nikola Jokic Under 50.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at bet365)
Nikola Jokic had one of his worst games in recent memory on Friday, going 0-for-10 from 3-point range and committing eight turnovers. Even Jokic pointed this out, saying he was the worst player on the court for Game 3.
The fact that the Nuggets still won might be the most concerning thing for the Thunder, as we can expect Jokic to bounce back in Game 4.
But just how big a game will the Denver center come up with on Sunday? Oddsmakers are expecting a huge effort, setting his total combined points, rebounds, and assists at 50.5.
That’s a reasonable number if you look at his regular-season production, when Jokic averaged a triple-double and a combined total of 52.5 for the year.
In 10 postseason games, Jokic has only gone Over that total twice. And while Oklahoma City looked thoroughly unable to defend him in Game 1, they’ve made adjustments that have seemingly frustrated the three-time MVP in the last two contests.
I’m expecting Jokic to play far better in Game 4 than he did on Friday — it would be shocking if he didn’t — but this total is still set too high for the output we’ve seen from him in the postseason.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 38.5 points + rebounds (-115 at bet365)
Speaking of down games, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored just 18 points on 7 of 22 shooting in Oklahoma City’s Game 3 loss.
As much talent as the Thunder have, they need more than that out of SGA, the presumptive NBA MVP and the engine that has powered their offense all season long.
Like Jokic, a bounce-back effort seems likely from SGA. Before the disappointing performance on Friday, Gilgeous-Alexander had scored 31+ points in four straight games, even hitting that mark in Wednesday’s Game 2 blowout when he played just 30 minutes.
But while the Over on SGA’s point total is a tempting bet, I like combining his points and rebounds even better.
Gilgeous-Alexander has been grabbing a lot of boards against Denver in this series, going for double-digits in two of the first three games. With adding in his rebounds adding only six to the combined total, that seems like the more valuable way to target SGA in today’s game.
Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 blocks (-135 at bet365)
Chet Holmgren doesn’t necessarily have the best matchup in this series, especially when he’s tasked with defending Jokic. But he’s still been able to make his mark on the defensive end.
After a regular season effort that saw Holmgren block an average of 2.2 shots per game, his defensive production has grown even more impressive in the postseason, when he has averaged 2.9 blocks per game while also generating a steal per contest.
Holmgren’s length has played well in the playoffs, including in this series, where he’s been able to contest shots both on the ball and as a help defender.
He’s already compiled nine blocks in this series, getting 3+ rejections in two of the first three games. He also hit the 3+ block mark twice in the four-game series against the Memphis Grizzlies, despite Oklahoma City’s opportunity to limit the usage of its starters.
I don’t like targeting Holmgren’s scoring or other offensive numbers in this game, especially given my expectation of a better game out of SGA. But he’s always a safe bet to contest a lot of shots.
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