It is not often that we get to see how a quarterback responds to throwing five interceptions in one game. No one is more curious about that than the Florida Gators are, as DJ Lagway tries to forget last week’s debacle at LSU.
The Miami Hurricanes’ defense should not anticipate as many gifts, but it should expect the Gators to keep the ball in the air.
My Florida vs. Miami prop picks and free college football picks emphasize the one gap in the Hurricanes’ defense thus far.
Kickoff comes at 7:30 ET on Saturday, September 20.
Florida vs Miami props for Week 4
DJ Lagway Over 223.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Malachi Toney Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)- Jadan Baugh Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #1: DJ Lagway Over 223.5 Passing Yards
Grant Wells threw five interceptions as Marshall’s freshman quarterback in a stunning 20-0 loss to Rice in 2020. Michigan threw interceptions on five straight pass attempts, one on a halfback pass, at Notre Dame in 2012. And now DJ Lagway joins that ignomious list after last week’s wreck at LSU.
That is not an exhaustive list. But it is a memorable one.
Wells had to wait two weeks in the pandemic-boggled season to redeem himself, throwing two touchdowns but otherwise flopping in a conference championship game loss.
Lagway gets his chance quicker. Only so much should be expected against Miami’s defense, but it has been susceptible to chunk pass plays. Lagway may still turn over the ball, but he should also rip off some explosive gains.
Combine those explosive gains with Florida’s insistence on throwing the ball — doing so 9.1% more often than an average team would in a given game state, the 15th-highest rate in the country, per cfb-graphs.com — and Lagway should find his way to this Over.
Prop bet #2: Malachi Toney Over 66.5 Receiving Yards
While Miami’s defense may be somewhat susceptible to explosive pass plays, its offense is just as likely to hit big. And against Florida, that likelihood may become a certainty.
The Gators rank in the lower third of the country in expected points added per dropback against, a worry worsened by opponents dropping back to throw 5.6% more often than would be usually expected.
Hurricanes receiver Malachi Toney has gained at least 66 receiving yards in each game this season, snagging six catches in each game as he does so. The comical combination of those numbers aside, expect Toney to continue those trends.
Frankly, there is plenty of reason to think Mario Cristobal may run up this score. Improving Miami’s public image will only benefit its Playoff seeding campaign, and impressing a few in-state recruits while competing against an in-state rival will be the icing on the cake.
Prop bet #3: Jaden Baugh Under 59.5 Rushing Yards
Florida should run the ball. Miami is weaker against the rush than the pass.
But the Gators have shown no interest in running the ball this season.
Billy Napier effectively staked his job on DJ Lagway’s progress. As foolish as that may seem after last week, it remains true. And it is too late for Napier to shift approaches. This team will go as Lagway goes.
That obviously cuts into Jaden Baugh's chances. And as Miami gets out to a lead on Saturday, Napier will default to Lagway all that much more, thus cutting into Fletcher’s chances all that much more.
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