The No. 25 USC Trojans host the Michigan State Spartans in a light-nate kickoff between two undefeated Big Ten teams.
Due to Michigan State’s cross-country travel and the late kick, combined with USC’s impressive showing to start the year, the Trojans are established as a substantial 18.5-point favorite.
See why I think the line is too wide with my Michigan State vs. USC predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Michigan State vs USC prediction
Michigan State vs USC best bet: Michigan State +18.5 (-110)
The USC Trojans have looked phenomenal through three games, compiling a 3-0 record by a combined score of 165 to 50. The offense ranks second in EPA per play, while the defense isn’t far behind at 11th. So why am I picking against them?
Their lone game against a team with a pulse didn’t look so great last week at Purdue. The Trojans won 33-17, failing to cover the 20.5-point spread despite benefiting from a +3 turnover margin that included a 70-yard big man touchdown.
It wasn’t an impressive overall performance.
The Michigan State Spartans are 3-0 and represent a competent conference opponent, making this 18.5-point spread too wide for my liking.
Jonathan Smith runs a developmental program, and we should therefore expect improvement in his second year in East Lansing, especially with quarterback Aidan Chiles maturing in the system.
Smith coached in the Pac-12 for six seasons, and Chiles played there for a year, easing the anxiety of a trip to the West Coast.
Both teams operate slowly (USC 107th in plays per minute, Michigan State 119th), limiting possessions and making it difficult to win by a wide margin.
Michigan State vs USC same-game parlay
A Spartan's cover is correlated with the Under as a shootout with a potent Trojan's offense is generally unwise. Given the projected slow pace of this game and the fact that Michigan State star receiver Nick Marsh is questionable for this contest, possessions should be at a premium.
The Spartans have employed a pass-funnel defense, limiting teams to 2.6 yards per carry, while getting torched in the secondary (121st in passing success rate allowed). Therefore, I’m siding with USC running back Waymond Jordan’s Under for his rushing total.
Michigan State vs USC SGP
- Michigan State +18.5
- Under 55.5
- Waymond Jordan Under 77.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Chiles to the House!
USC allowed a rushing score to a dual-threat quarterback last week (Purdue’s Ryan Browne), and Chiles may carry a heavier burden of the rushing work with starting running back Makhi Frazier dinged up.
Michigan State vs USC SGP
- Michigan State +18.5
- Under 55.5
- Waymond Jordan Under 77.5 rushing yards
- Aidan Chiles anytime touchdown scorer
Michigan State vs USC odds
- Spread: Michigan State +15.5 | USC -15.5
- Moneyline: Michigan State +525 | USC -750
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 | Under 55.5
Michigan State vs USC trend to know
USC has hit the Under in four of its last five Big Ten conference games. Find more college football betting trends for Michigan State vs USC.
How to watch Michigan State vs USC
| Location | Los Angeles Memorial Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Saturday, September 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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