Looking to make some plays on college football player props in Week 4? I have you covered with three prop picks for the night slate this Saturday.
Will Arch Manning get back on track? How will the Illinois and Indiana showdown play out? Will Missouri’s offense stay hot in a matchup against South Carolina?
My college football picks answer those questions for Saturday, September 20.
Best college football player props for Week 4's late slate
Manning o258.5 pass yds (-114)
Feagin u60.5 rush yds (-114)
Norfleet o15.5 rec yds (-114)
Prop bet #1: Arch Manning Over 258.5 passing yards
What do you do when the whole world is taking a firm stance in opposition to a player? You zig the other way, of course.
Look, it’s been a rough start to the year for Arch Manning. There’s no denying that. Still, this talented No. 8 Texas Longhorns QB is due to break out in Week 4 with a Charmin-soft matchup against the Sam Houston Bearkats.
The Bearkats are a Group of 5 school that lost its Top 16 tacklers from a season ago. There’s no replacing that amount of production, especially at that level of the sport. They’ve surrendered at least 400 yards in all three of their games, and the secondary has been especially vulnerable (314.7 passing yards allowed per game).
Getting off to a rocky start is one thing, but failing to have a successful day at the office against a defense that checks in at 119th in passing success rate would be another matter entirely. Arch did throw for 295 yards and four scores against San Jose State in Week 2, so we know the potential is there.
With the Longhorns down their Top 2 running backs in Week 4, the emphasis will be on building consistency in the passing attack.
- Matchup: Sam Houston vs. Texas
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 20 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
- TV: ESPN+
Prop bet #2: Kaden Feagin Under 60.5 rushing yards
The headliner of the night slate is a Big Ten showdown between the No. 9 Illinois Fighting Illini and the No. 19 Indiana Hoosiers. It’ll be a hard-fought battle between two tough, well-coached teams.
Indiana was one of the best teams in the country defending the rush last year, and the Hoosiers look to pose a difficult challenge for opposing offenses again in 2025. The defensive front has been very disruptive (first in front seven havoc) and has held up well at the line of scrimmage (third in stuff rate, 11th in line yards).
Outside of a few big runs allowed to Old Dominion quarterback Colton Joseph, the Hoosiers have been solid against the rush (seventh in rushing success rate allowed). Illinois running back Kaden Feagin doesn’t present nearly the same skillset as the explosive Joseph, and as long as he doesn’t break off a huge explosive rush in this game, the Under on this rushing yardage prop is looking like a fine play.
While Feagin is the preferred back for the Illini, he’s still in a three-way timeshare with Ca’Lil Valentine and Aidan Laughery. That’ll limit his touches, as will the fact that both Indiana (101st in plays per minute) and Illinois (129th) play at a slow tempo, limiting possessions.
With volume and efficiency both in question, I’m on the Under for Feagin in Week 4.
- Matchup: Illinois vs. Indiana
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
- TV: NBC
Prop bet #3: Brett Norfleet Over 15.5 receiving yards
The No. 23 Missouri Tigers have been in one competitive game (42-31 win over Kansas), and in that contest, tight end Brett Norfleet caught seven passes for 76 yards and two scores.
That doesn’t mean that we should expect that kind of production every time Missouri is in a tight game, but it does mean that Norfleet is probably a valuable member of this offense and that we should expect to see more of him catching passes during SEC play.
It’s hard to take too much away from a 61-6 drubbing of Central Arkansas or a 52-10 demolition of Louisiana in which the Top 2 running backs on Missouri handled a combined 42 carries. The South Carolina Gamecocks represent a live opponent, especially now that LaNorris Sellers seems to be trending toward playing.
Norfleet has handled 14 targets this season and has been on the field for 92 pass snaps, the most among any Missouri pass catcher. The opportunity is such that he shouldn’t be listed with a receiving yardage total as low as 15.5. He’ll be on the field pretty much the entire game in a competitive contest, and he’s seeing a few targets every game.
- Matchup: South Carolina vs. Missouri
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 20 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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