Sam Darnold is coming off a breakout season with the Vikings where he threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. There were questions about whether the former first rounder could replicate that success after signing the Seahawks, especially after they traded away No. 1 WR D.K. Metcalf.
He answered those questions with a stellar performance last week, and my NFL picks are betting on him to torch a vulnerable Saints defense on Sunday. Darnold headlines my favorite NFL player props for Week 3.
NFL Week 3 prop picks
Jacobs u78.5 rush yds (-114)
Taylor o88.5 rush yds (-114)
Johnston u43.5 rec yds (-114)
Robinson o79.5 rush yds (-114)
Darnold o217.5 pass yds (-114)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 3
Prop pick: Josh Jacobs Under 78.5 rushing yards
Green Bay Packers running back Josh Jacobs rushed for 83 yards on an inefficient 3.7 yards per carry last week. That was just the third time in his last last nine games that broke the 70-yard mark, and he has a tough matchup against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.
The Browns held Baltimore's elite rushing attack to just 45 yards on 21 carries last week, and they are sixth in the NFL in defensive rush success rate. Green Bay is 21st in the league in run-blocking grade (54.6) per PFF while Cleveland leads the league in run defense grade (85.6).
In addition, Jacobs has been limited in practice due to an ankle injury, and while he's expected to play, he might not be at full strength.
Prop pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 88.5 rushing yards
The Indianapolis Colts have been throwing the ball on early downs due to their rising confidence in new quarterback Daniel Jones. That means opposing defenses won't be as willing to stack the box against Pro Bowl RB Jonathan Taylor.
Taylor had 25 carries for 165 yards against Denver's highly-rated defense last week. He has now rushed for more than 95 yards in six of his last seven games. That includes a Week 16 clash against the Tennessee Titans last year when he rumbled for 218 yards on 29 carries.
This year, the Titans are last in the league in defensive rush EPA while surrendering 150 rushing yards per game.
Prop pick: Quentin Johnston Under 43.5 receiving yards
Quentin Johnston surprisingly leads the Los Angeles Chargers with 150 receiving yards through two games. The former first rounder had issues with drops in his first two years and was viewed as the Bolts No. 3 WR entering the season.
It's worth noting that 60 of Johnston's 71 receiving yards last week came on a single catch against the Raiders. He'll have a much tougher time beating an elite Denver Broncos secondary over the top.
Denver had the best pass defense in the NFL last year and ranks second in defensive dropback success rate this season. The Broncos also blitz at the second-highest rate in the league, which won't give Bolts QB Justin Herbert time to look downfield.
Johnston is at his best on vertical routes but Denver rarely gets beat deep, and lockdown corner Patrick Surtain II could line up against him on the outside.
Prop pick: Bijan Robinson Over 79.5 rushing yards
The Carolina Panthers are 26th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (141.0) while ranking 27th in yards allowed per rush (5.2). They'll have a tough time slowing down the Atlanta Falcons and Pro Bowl RB Bijan Robinson on Sunday.
Robinson gashed the Vikings for 143 yards on 23 carries last week. He piled up 1,456 rushing yards last season and shredded the Panthers both times he faced them. He rushed for 95 yards on 15 carries against them in Week 7 before rumbling for 170 yards in Atlanta's season finale.
Prop pick: Sam Darnold Over 217.5 passing yards
Sam Darnold was ineffective in his Seattle Seahawks debut against the 49ers, but he made major strides last week.
The 2024 Pro Bowl QB completed 22 of 33 passes for 295 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Steelers in Week 2. He goes from facing Pittsburgh's tough defense on the road to playing against the lowly New Orleans Saints at home.
The Saints are 26th in the league in defensive dropback success rate while ranking 28th in opponent passer rating (111.3). Last week they allowed 49ers backup QB Mac Jones to complete 26 of 39 passes for 279 yards and three scores.
Darnold has the third-highest passing grade in the league per PFF (85.7) and I'm expecting him to soar past his meager passing yards total on Sunday.
NFL Week 3 prop betting card
- Jacobs u78.5 rush yds (-114)
- Taylor o88.5 rush yds (-114)
- Johnston u43.5 rec yds (-114)
- Robinson o79.5 rush yds (-114)
- Darnold o217.5 pass yds (-114)
Last week: 2-3
Season: 2-3, -1.42 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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