Looking for value in Week 3? This is where the plus-money NFL picks come to life. We’re skipping the juice and hunting for upside —backing players in the right matchups, game scripts, and roles to smash expectations.
Whether it’s a deep shot on a breakout receiver or a backup QB pressed into action, these bets come with risk — but also the kind of reward that turns a good Sunday into a great one. Let’s dive in.
Latest NFL Week 3 plus money bets
Herbert 25+ rushing yards (+116)
Taylor o0.5 INT (+116)
Odunze 100+ receiving yards (+370)
Justin Herbert 25+ rushing yards
Few markets deliver as much entertainment ROI as quarterback rushing props. Watching a QB escape pressure, break a tackle, and rip off a run against man coverage is as electric as it gets. This week, that edge points squarely to MVP contender Justin Herbert.
Herbert has 16 carries through two games and has cleared 30 rushing yards in both. What’s driving the volume? The Chargers rank No. 1 in passing offense and dead last in rushing offense by EPA/play.
They also lead the league in pass rate over expected at +13.8%. More dropbacks means more scramble opportunities, and Herbert currently ranks seventh in scramble yards among QBs (PFF).
His rushing lines are 4.5 attempts and 19.5 yards. THE BLITZ projects 6.28 carries for 27.2 yards — strong value on both overs, especially attempts.
With the Chargers' offensive identity built around the pass and a non-existent run game, Herbert’s legs should stay busy.
Tyrod Taylor Over 0.5 interceptions
There are plenty of backup QBs starting this week, but Tyrod Taylor stands out as the best value in the interception market at plus money.
The 36-year-old last started for the Giants at the end of the 2023 season, throwing picks in both Weeks 17 and 18. He now steps in for the Jets, who may be forced into a pass-heavy script vs. a solid Tampa Bay roster.
Through two games, New York has averaged just 22 pass attempts per game — second lowest in the league — but that could shift quickly.
THE BLITZ projects a slow-paced but pass-heavy game script in Week 3, with Taylor expected to drop back around 32 times. If the Jets are trailing, that number could rise — and so does the risk of a turnover.
Tampa Bay’s secondary is fully healthy and blitzing at a Top 10 rate. That pressure, combined with Taylor playing on the road with limited prep time, sets up a high-leverage interception spot, especially as a touchdown dog. Only Spencer Rattler (-142) has a better expected value to throw a pick than Taylor this week.
In a shaky QB week, Taylor at plus money for an INT is a sharp play.
Rome Odunze 100+ receiving yards
I played it safe with picks one and two, but it's time to swing for the fences with pick No. 3.
This is also the part of the article where I pick on the Cowboys and their broken defense. Russell Wilson looked like the worst QB in the league in Week 1, then lit up Dallas for 450 yards in Week 2 — the most in the NFL.
The Cowboys’ secondary is a mess; they’re allowing 8.8 yards per pass attempt, rarely blitz, and when they rush just four, they're the worst defense in the league by EPA/play.
The team to back this week is the Bears, and the player to target is Rome Odunze.
Odunze has taken over as the clear WR1, commanding over 30% of the targets and 40% of the air yards. His receiving yards prop is 60.5, barely an adjustment from his Week 1 line of 56.5 — even after going for 11 targets, 128 yards, and two touchdowns last week.
Yes, much of that came in negative game script, but the Bears' offense under Ben Johnson is staying aggressive regardless of the score. Against this Dallas defense, another 10-target day is absolutely in play. Last week, both Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson cleared 140 yards.
Odunze to go 100+ at +370 is my favorite way to attack this defense.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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