Thursday Night Football in Week 3 features an AFC East showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo is led by superstar quarterback Josh Allen, and my NFL picks are betting on him to have an efficient performance against a Miami defense that has been awful.
Find out more in my Dolphins vs. Bills player props for September 18.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, with the game airing on Amazon Prime.
Dolphins vs Bills TNF props
Allen u0.5 interceptions (-150)
Achane o5.5 receptions (-110)- Bosa to record a sack - Yes (-110)
Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions (-150)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown just one interception in his last 10 games. He has also been picked off in just two of his last seven starts against the Miami Dolphins.
The reigning NFL MVP does a great job of limiting risky throws, and he might not throw much on Thursday since the Bills are 11.5-point home favorites and should have a positive game script.
Miami is last in the league in coverage grade per PFF, while also ranking last in defensive dropback EPA. The Dolphins have yet to intercept a pass this year and have the sixth-fewest passes defended (6).
De'Von Achane Over 5.5 receptions (-110)
De'Von Achane saw a team-high 10 targets in Week 2 and reeled in eight of them for 92 yards. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel loves to use his running backs in the passing game, and Achane hauled in 78 receptions for 592 yards last year.
It's worth noting that Achane averaged just 1.8 receptions per game in the six contests where Tua Tagovailoa was sidelined, but the Phins RB averaged 6.1 receptions per game with Tua under center.
Achane saw a ton of usage against the Bills last year, grabbing seven receptions with 29 total touches in Week 2 before piling up eight catches at Buffalo in Week 9.
Buffalo's defense has been susceptible to pass-catching backs, and the Dolphins will be throwing a lot since they are significant underdogs.
Joey Bosa to record a sack - Yes (-110)
Bills edge rusher Joey Bosa looked like the 2021 version of himself last week against the Jets. Bosa had a whopping seven pressures and knocked Justin Fields out of the game with a sack in the fourth quarter.
The five-time Pro Bowler has been hindered by injuries over the last few seasons and was signed to a one-year prove-it deal in the offseason. He's still an impact pass rusher when healthy, and this week he faces a Dolphins offensive line that has already allowed eight sacks.
Miami placed right tackle Austin Jackson on the IR last week, and his replacement, Larry Borom, struggled against the Patriots, giving up two sacks and a QB hit.
Bosa faced Borom back in 2023 when he was on the Chargers and Borom was manning the left side for the Bears. Bosa had five pressures in that contest, with many of them coming against Borom (although his lone sack came against guard Cody Whitehair).
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Dolphins vs Bills TNF prop betting card
- Allen u0.5 interceptions (-150)
- Achane o5.5 receptions (-110)
- Bosa to record a sack - Yes (-110)
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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