Week 2 of the NFL season left us with chaos, surprises, and a few teams we still can’t figure out.
Heading into Week 3, my NFL picks against the spread focus on separating what’s real from what’s noise, and where the betting value lies
Week 3 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Dolphins vs  Bills |
(-11.5) |
 Bengals vs  Vikings |
(-3) |
 Packers vs  Browns |
(+7.5) |
 Colts vs  Titans |
(-3.5) |
 Raiders vs  Commanders |
(+3.5) |
 Steelers vs  Patriots |
(-1.5) |
 Falcons vs  Panthers |
(-5.5) |
 Texans vs  Jaguars |
(-1) |
 Rams vs  Eagles |
(-3.5) |
 Jets vs  Buccaneers |
(+7) |
 Saints vs  Seahawks |
(+7.5) |
 Broncos vs  Chargers |
(-2.5) |
 Cowboys vs  Bears |
(+1) |
 Cardinals vs  49ers |
(+1.5) |
 Chiefs vs  Giants |
(+6) |
 Lions vs  Ravens |
(-5) |
Lines courtesy of bet365 as of 9-16.
Expert Week 3 NFL ATS picks
Dolphins vs Bills: Bills (-11.5)
I am shocked Mike McDaniel still has a job heading into Week 3. The Miami Dolphins have very clearly quit on him, and now they hit the road for a division game against a Buffalo Bills offense that has put up 30+ in each of their first two games and will likely hit the mark again in an easy win and cover.
Bengals vs Vikings: Vikings (-3)
It's a battle of backup quarterbacks, as Jake Browning will likely oppose Carson Wentz. I'll take the Minnesota Vikings here, who didn't have to travel, and the one that can actually say they have a capable offensive line.
Packers vs Browns: Browns (+7.5)
Call me crazy, but if I'm getting the hook on a touchdown with the home side, I'll take it. The Cleveland Browns defense can be the difference-maker, and I expect a low-scoring game that could be closer than the Green Bay Packers want or expect it to be.
Colts vs Titans: Colts (-3.5)
I know I haven't been exactly pro-Indianapolis Colts, but I want no part of the Tennessee Titans. Daniel Jones has taken his play to the next level (which isn't that high, to be honest), but I expect him to outplay rookie Cam Ward.
Raiders vs Commanders: Raiders (+3.5)
There's some talk of Jayden Daniels not suiting up, but he may not be 100% even if he does, as he's battling a knee sprain. The Las Vegas Raiders could not have played worse if they tried in Week 2, so I expect a much better effort here on both sides of the football.
Steelers vs Patriots: Steelers (-1.5)
I simply trust the Pittsburgh Steelers defense more than I do the New England Patriots. If not for a muffed punt that turned the game against the Steelers, Pittsburgh could very well be 2-0 and the talk of the AFC.
Falcons vs Panthers: Falcons (-5.5)
I want absolutely nothing to do with the Carolina Panthers from a betting perspective. They found a backdoor cover last week vs. the Cardinals, but that won't happen again. The Atlanta Falcons defense is stout, and the offense should score 28 points or more to secure this cover.
Texans vs Jaguars: Jaguars (-1)
This is a game only a bettor could love. Both teams are coming off heartbreaking, last-second losses, but I trust the Jacksonville Jaguars offense more. I'll take the home team here at a pick'em price.
Rams vs Eagles: Eagles (-3.5)
The Los Angeles Rams may very well be 2-0, but wins against the Texans and Titans don't hold much weight. The competition goes up a notch vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, and I don't see them rising to the occasion.
Jets vs Buccaneers: Jets (+7)
Coming off a last-second win vs. the Texans, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are also 2-0 on the year. They are on a short week and could suffer a letdown. I'll take the full touchdown with the New York Jets, who are in all-out desperation mode.
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Saints vs Seahawks: Saints (+7.5)
The New Orleans Saints didn't look half bad last week against the 49ers. I'm not sold on the Seattle Seahawks, so let's ride our luck getting the hook on a TD.
Broncos vs Chargers: Chargers (-2.5)
The Los Angeles Chargers look like Super Bowl contenders after two weeks. Getting another division win will only prop them up even more. I say they get it.
Cowboys vs Bears: Cowboys (+1)
Both defenses are hot garbage, but one of these teams has Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
Cardinals vs 49ers: Cardinals (+1.5)
I've been in on the Arizona Cardinals since the preseason, so I'm not backing down now. I think they are the better team on both sides of the ball, and they are certainly the healthier option.
Chiefs vs Giants: Giants (+6)
I'm fairly close to pressing the panic button on the Kansas City Chiefs' season, and a loss here would do enough to ring the alarms. The New York Giants' pass rush was impressive last week, and could be the difference maker here in a close ball game.
Lions vs Ravens: Ravens (-5)
Both teams are coming off blowout wins in Week 2, but I have to side with the Baltimore Ravens laying less than a touchdown. They will be able to run the ball effectively, and Jared Goff tends to struggle outdoors.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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