The St. Louis Cardinals head to the Big Apple for a four-game series against the New York Mets beginning on Thursday night.
New York is atop the NL East with a 12-7 record but its rotation is hampered by injuries, which is why my Cardinals vs. Mets predictions are expecting plenty of runs today.
Here are my best free MLB picks for this NL clash on April 17.
Cardinals vs Mets prediction
My Cardinals vs Mets best bet: Over 7.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
Griffin Canning was scratched from his start last night due to illness but has been cleared to pitch for the New York Mets today. In a perfect world, Canning would be on the fringe of the rotation. But with Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas on the IR and Kodai Senga coming off an injury-plagued season, the Angels castoff is being relied upon.
Canning had a 5.19 ERA with an OBA of .265 in 31 starts last season. This year, he's in the Bottom 10th percentile of all pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, which has led to an expected ERA of 5.30 and an expected batting average of .281.
He'll have a tough time navigating a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that has been highly-productive. St. Louis leads the majors in batting average (.279) and is third in on-base percentage (.347) while ranking fifth in runs per game (5.22).
The Cards will send 26-year-old Andre Pallante to the hill for today's clash. He's coming off a gem against the Phillies where he allowed just a pair of hits across seven innings of shutout ball.
Pallante has pitched to a 2.20 ERA with an OBA of .169 through three starts. However, Pallante's xERA sits at 3.80 with his xBA at .252, which suggests that he'll see regression. Meanwhile, the Mets are due for positive regression at the plate. They are sixth in the majors in barrel rate and average exit velocity while ranking fourth in hard-hit rate.
The total of 7.5 is too low for a pair of teams that should have success at the dish tonight, especially with the wind blowing towards right field at 13 mph when the game begins.
Cardinals vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Cardinals moneyline
Brendan Donovan 1+ hits
Early money has come in on the Cardinals, moving their moneyline price from +125 and +115, and I'm leaning towards the visitors at plus-money as well.
While Pallante's Statcast analytics aren't great, they're still far better than Canning's, which gives St. Louis the edge on the mound. The Cards have also won three of their last four games while the Mets are coming off back-to-back defeats.
Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan is batting .380 and his xBA of .352 ranks second in the NL. He has picked up a hit in 12-straight games and will have the platoon advantage against Canning.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cardinals vs Mets odds
Cardinals vs Mets live odds
Cardinals vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +125 | New York -150
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-165) | New York -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)
Cardinals vs Mets trend
The Cardinals have covered the F5 Run Line in five of their last six games (+4.15 Units / 57% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Mets.
How to watch Cardinals vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Thursday, 4-17-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN-Midwest, SNY |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Andre Pallante (2-0, 2.20 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | David Peterson (1-1, 2.70 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Mets latest injuries
Cardinals vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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