Shohei Ohtani is smacking baseballs a long way lately and my MLB player props analysis will explain why that trend could continue tonight.
Max Kepler and Aaron Judge will also be included in my picks.
Best MLB home run props today
Shohei Ohtani (+255)
Max Kepler (+500)
Aaron Judge (+115)
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HR picks for May 10
Shohei Ohtani (+255 at DraftKings)
I included Shohei Ohtani in Friday’s picks and it paid off, with the superstar cranking a game-winning three-run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Ohtani cannot be stopped, and he’s in for another favorable matchup tonight.
The D-Backs send Corbin Burnes to the hill and Ohtani is 3 for 6 lifetime against him with a homer. The Los Angeles Dodgers standout is now up to 12 bombs on the season and he’s gone yard in five of his last seven games. Yes, you read that correctly. Ohtani is truly red-hot.
10 of his home runs are against right-handed pitchers as well. Ohtani has a great chance of smacking No. 13 at Chase Field this evening.
Max Kepler (+500 at DraftKings)
Max Kepler may not be a household name, but he has some pop in his bat. The outfielder has five home runs for the Philadelphia Phillies this season. He’ll face Tanner Bibee tonight, who is very prone to the long ball. He’s already allowed nine bombs in just seven starts.
While Kepler is only 4 for 16 lifetime versus Bibee, it’s hard to ignore the righty’s struggles with the homer. Kepler also hits substantially better against righties, batting .250 as opposed to .200 vs lefties.
Four of his homers are against right-handed hurlers and Kepler has three long balls in his last nine contests. The odds are steep because he’s not an elite power guy, but it’s worth a look.
Aaron Judge (+115 at DraftKings)
Aaron Judge is tied for the league lead in homers with 12. He also leads the Majors in average, hits, and RBIs. The reigning AL MVP is doing it all, and I expect him to potentially go deep for the 13th time tonight. Here’s why.
The New York Yankees will be up against Athletics lefty JP Sears, and Judge is batting .333 (2 for 6) against him with a home run. On top of that, Judge has made southpaw’s lives a nightmare in 2025. He’s hitting .478 (11 for 23) with five bombs off left-handed pitchers.
Also, Judge has six home runs in day games, and this one begins at 1:05 PM EDT. He has two long balls in his last six appearances, too. The odds aren’t offering a ton of value, but we’re talking about one of the most feared hitters in the sport. Lock it in.
Today’s most popular HR bets
- Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves (+240)
- Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (+295)
- Pete Alonso, New York Mets (+270)
- Fernando Tati Jr., San Diego Padres (+210)
- Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (+205)
Betting info courtesy of DraftKings
Not intended for use in MA.
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