The Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians have split the first two games of their three-game set and will decide the series at Progressive Field for Sunday Night Baseball.
Zack Wheeler is rolling to start the 2025 campaign, and my top Phillies vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks expect the Philly righty to lead the way to a convincing victory on Sunday, May 11.
Phillies vs Guardians prediction for Sunday Night Baseball
My Phillies vs Guardians best bet: Phillies -1.5 (+100 at Caesars)
There’s a huge pitching advantage for the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, with Zack Wheeler dialing it in across his past four starts. The veteran righty has allowed exactly two runs in each with a tidy 2.70 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 1.89 xFIP.
Wheeler has also been piling up the strikeouts with 38 across 26 2/3 frames while holding opposing hitters to a miniscule .194 batting average and issuing just three free passes.
The Cleveland Guardians have Luis Ortiz toeing the rubber, and he sports a career 4.27 ERA and 4.76 xFIP as a starter.
It’ll be a tough task for the righty with Philly sending a potent lineup to the dish with an eighth-ranked .344 wOBA and third-ranked .339 on-base percentage against righties.
Cleveland doesn’t pack the same punch, with respective 15th and 18th-place ranks.
Of course, Philadelphia is also rolling along a 10-3 stretch for a solid +5.75 units and a 29% ROI.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Phillies vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies -1.5
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
In addition to the highlighted ho-hum marks as a starter, Ortiz has also surrendered a healthy .340 wOBA and .455 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters.
Philly stars Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper aren’t run-of-the-mill hitters, either.
Schwarber boasts a high-end .357 wOBA, .274 ISO and .834 OPS against righties over the past three years, and Harper sports an equally impressive .376, .219 and .884 line.
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Phillies vs Guardians odds
Phillies vs Guardians live odds
Phillies vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -165 | Cleveland +148
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 | Cleveland +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Phillies vs Guardians trend
The Phillies have won 10 of their last 13 games (+5.75 Units / 29% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Guardians.
How to watch Phillies vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Sunday, 5-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (3-1, 3.35 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Luis Ortiz (2-3, 5.30 ERA) |
Phillies vs Guardians latest injuries
Phillies vs Guardians weather
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