Phillies vs Guardians Props, Picks & Best Bets for Sunday Night Baseball

It's a big-time matchup on Sunday Night baseball when the Philadelphia Phillies meet the Cleveland Guardians.

In my Sunday Night Baseball player props and MLB picks for May 11, I see some value in one Guardians star at the plate in Jose Ramirez.

Phillies vs Guardians Sunday Night Baseball props

•  Ramirez o0.5 RBI (+165)
• Wheeler u6.5 Ks (+108)
• Kepler o1.5 TB (+120)

Phillies vs Guardians props for Sunday Night Baseball

Jose Ramirez Over 0.5 RBI (+165 at Caesars)

To get after Zack Wheeler, who takes the mound for the Phillies, it is essential that you hit the fastball well. He throws it over 40% of the time, and throughout his career, it's been his strongest pitch.

Jose Ramirez will be placed behind the two best hitters of the fastball on the roster, Daniel Schneemann and Steven Kwan. Schneemann, in particular, has been devastating against the four-seam with a slugging percentage of .852 and a wOBA of .547 when seeing it. 

Ahead of him is Kwan, who doesn't strike out and has baseball's 15th highest on-base percentage. You like that combo if you're looking for someone behind him to drive home a run.

Of course, there's also the matter of Ramirez himself, who should see a boost playing in Progressive Field (per usual).

Ramirez plays to the strength of his home stadium by pulling almost 42% of his fly balls, which angles them toward the sixth-shallowest fences in baseball and increases the likelihood of hitting it out of the park.

Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 strikeouts (+108 at Caesars)

My projections see some decent value on this number, pricing Zack Wheeler's Under right around -105. When you factor in the matchup a little deeper and umpire Alan Porter's tendency to favor hitters, it's easy to take the view that this is the preferred side on this prop. 

From top to bottom, the Guardians aren't the easiest team to strike out. Getting contact and putting the ball into play have been hallmarks of their success for a few years now, and not much has changed this season. 

While Cleveland is 11th overall in strikeout rate on the season, that number has started to revert to past form over the last month, ranking sixth league-wide in that standing.

For Wheeler to eclipse this number, he'll likely have to get Ks from high strikeout guys in the lineup in Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor, and Gabriel Arias. The biggest issue for Wheeler is that his primary putaway pitches in the sweeper or sinker are pitches that all three players hit above the league average.

I envision a scenario where Wheeler gets into many two-strike counts but cannot finish the job. 

Max Kepler Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at Caesars)

Max Kepler should make his impact felt here.

With just one head-to-head meeting between himself and Guardians pitcher Luis Ortiz, there's not much to go by from a historical standpoint. However, the underlying metrics of the matchup look positive.

Ortiz leans primarily on three pitches, with the fastball topping the list. Kepler hasn't produced well against the fastball this season, but that's only one part of the story.

He leads all Phillies in expected batting average against that pitch. That screams that positive regression is coming, and this is a good spot against a pitcher that gives up tons of barrels and hard contact.

Aside from that, Kepler projects strongly against the other two pitches that Ortiz will throw in the slider and cutter.

Against the slider, he leads the Phillies team in hard-hit rate, expected batting average, and batting average on the season. Against the cutter, he ranks second overall behind Brandon Marsh in hard-hit rate.

Whatever Ortiz decides to throw against him, Kepler should be in a strong position to take advantage. 

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