The New York Yankees aren’t often outgunned when it comes to crushing home runs, but they came unstuck yesterday against the A’s — and that makes today’s rematch a tasty series decider.
After a lopsided loss on Friday, the Athletics rebounded with a pair of three-run blasts to sink New York last night. But my Yankees vs. A’s predictions lean towards the visitors’ big-hitters this afternoon, including Aaron Judge, as they face former teammate Luis Severino.
Read on for my MLB picks for this May 11 battle.
Yankees vs A's prediction
My Yankees vs A's best bet: Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (+100 at Caesars)
Aaron Judge is hitting .403 on the road this season, so it shouldn’t come as a big surprise that he’s made himself comfortable at Sutter Health Park in this series against the A’s, with a double in Friday’s win and a pair of homers yesterday.
He’s looked like the league’s best hitter with a 1.258 OPS through 39 games, and I see his bat making more noise in today’s showdown against Luis Severino, who spent eight seasons in the Yankees clubhouse.
While that doesn’t equal in-game experience against the veteran righty, Judge should have a handle on Severino’s pitches and what he likes to throw in different counts, and this is a nice price for the New York slugger to drive in at least one run here.
Severino himself acknowledged the challenge ahead, calling Judge’s start to the season “unbelievable” in the build-up to this afternoon’s game. The righty knows better than most that there are really no weak spots to attack in his former teammate’s approach.
Judge has cooled off a little after a sizzling April, where he crushed six dingers and piled up 21 RBIs, but he showed his menace at the plate yesterday, pushing his league-leading home run tally to 14. Eight of those long balls have come against righties, which is ominous news for the A’s.
While the Yankees are just 4-4 so far in May, with the AL East looking as wide-open as predicted, I’m banking on Judge to keep the offense firing this afternoon — and it only takes one good swing for No. 99 to cash this Over.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Yankees vs A's same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI
Luis Severino Under 5.5 strikeouts
Over 3.5 F3
Judge isn’t the only New York hitter who’ll be familiar with Severino’s game plan, and I’m tripling down on that logic for my SGP, starting with the Under on the Athletics starter’s strikeout total.
Severino has fallen short of this 5.5 number in three of his last four outings, and he’s given up eight runs across his past three starts. With the gauntlet that this dangerous Yankees lineup presents, I don’t see Severino getting to the sixth inning, and that puts a ceiling on his Ks tally.
Meanwhile, the visitors have been uncertain on their starter for this afternoon — and that just adds to the sense that we could get runs right out of the gate here.
I’m pumping up the SGP odds with the Over on 3.5 runs through the first three innings. That was a winning ticket in yesterday’s clash, and Severino gave up four runs in the third inning on Monday against the Seattle Mariners.
Plus, there’s a lot to like about these two offenses.
Both rank in the Top 5 in batting average, and New York sits second in total runs. The Athletics have hit the Over in 13 of its last 20 home games, and I’m expecting early base-runners here, with pitchers immediately feeling the heat.
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Yankees vs A's odds
Yankees vs A's live odds
Yankees vs A's opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -131 | Athletics +118
- Run line: New York -1.5 | Athletics +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 10 | Under 10
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Yankees vs A's trend
The Yankees have had the upper hand in this matchup, winning seven of their last 10 meetings against the A’s. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs A's.
How to watch Yankees vs A's and game info
| Location | Sutter Health Park, Sacramento, CA |
| Date | Sunday, 5-11-2025 |
| First pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-Bay Area, YES |
| Yankees starting pitcher | TBD (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
| A's starting pitcher | Luis Severino (1-3, 3.62 ERA) |
Yankees vs A's latest injuries
Yankees vs A's weather
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