The Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves are tied up at one game apiece as their series heads to San Francisco for tonight's pivotal Game 3.
With superstar guard Stephen Curry sidelined by a hamstring injury, Golden State will need to rely on its supporting cast and defense to pull off the upset.
My NBA picks are counting on that as I fade Anthony Edwards on his points prop and back Golden State guard Brandin Podziemski to stuff the stat sheet.
Here are my best free Timberwolves vs. Warriors props for Saturday, May 10.
Best Timberwolves vs Warriors props
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Edwards u25.5 points (-110)
Podziemski o9.5 assists + rebounds (+100)
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DiVincenzo o3.5 assists (+125)
Timberwolves vs Warriors player props for May 10
Anthony Edwards Under 25.5 points (-110 at bet365)
This series has been played at a sluggish tempo, with both offenses preferring to slow things down.
The Golden State Warriors also boast the highest-rated defense in the NBA after trading for Jimmy Butler in February. The Dubs will really miss Stephen Curry on offense, but there won't be a drop-off on the defensive end of the floor.
Not only will the pace and Golden State's stingy defense negatively impact Anthony Edwards' scoring output, but he might be at less than full strength. Edwards was bothered by an ankle injury in the first round against the Lakers and reaggravated that ankle during the second quarter in Game 2.
He finished with 20 points in 34 minutes in that contest after dropping 23 points on 9-for-22 shooting in Game 1. Edwards has now scored fewer than 26 points in five of seven playoff games, and I expect the Minnesota Timberwolves' superstar to be held below that number again.
Brandin Podziemski Over 9.5 assists + rebounds (+100 at bet365)
Brandin Podziemski has been a key player for Golden State, and he usually sees his role expand whenever Curry is sidelined. He averaged 14.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game in 33 starts during the regular season.
After pulling down eight boards and dropping three dimes in the series opener, Podziemski finished with six assists and six rebounds in Game 2. He's logged more than 32 minutes in five of nine playoff games and will likely see another significant workload tonight.
The Warriors guard can be a bit inconsistent with his shooting, which we saw in Game 1 when he went 1-for-7 from the field. That's why I'm reluctant to bet Podziemski's points props against a T-Wolves side that defends at a high level.
However, he'll get plenty of rebounding opportunities in Golden State's small-ball lineups, and Podziemski's increased ball-handling in Curry's absence will lead to an uptick in assists.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 assists (+125 at bet365)
Longtime-starter Mike Conley has seen reduced minutes this series, and when he is on the floor, the veteran point guard has been focused on defense.
That's meant more playing time and a bigger offensive role for sixth-man Donte DiVincenzo, who is averaging 30.2 minutes per game over his last five contests. DiVincenzo racked up five assists in Game 2 and dropped four dimes in 33 minutes in Game 1.
The O/U for his assists tonight is set at 3.5, a number he has eclipsed in seven of his last 10 games. Whether it's being named the Final Four MOP with Villanova or balling out for the Knicks in the playoffs last year, DiVincenzo has a history of stepping up in big games.
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