The 2-0 Green Bay Packers look to keep rolling as they go on the road to face the winless Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon.
These defenses are first and second in the NFL in yards allowed per play, and my Packers vs. Browns predictions expect that defensive intensity to continue.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 3 clash on September 21.
Packers vs Browns prediction
Packers vs Browns Best bet: Under 41.5 (-110)
To say that the Green Bay Packers' defense has been sensational this season is an understatement. Not only have the Packers allowed 15.5 points per game on a league-low 3.7 yards per play, but they did that against Detroit and Washington — two of the most-efficient offenses in the NFL last year.
The Packers should shut down a Cleveland Browns offense that is 30th in the league in EPA/play with Joe Flacco at the helm. Among 34 quarterbacks that have taken at least 20% of their team's snaps, Flacco is just 30th in offensive grade (57.7) per PFF.
That said, Cleveland's stop unit has been impressive. The Browns held Cincinnati's explosive offense to 17 points and just 2.9 yards per play in Week 1.
While they allowed 41 points in Baltimore last week, that was mostly due to their sloppy offense. The Ravens had a defensive touchdown and returned a pick to the five-yard line, with two other takeaways that left them just outside the red zone.
The Browns limited Baltimore to just 242 net yards, and I expect them to slow down a Packers offense that is missing two of its best receivers in Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.
Packers vs Browns same-game parlay
Green Bay RB Josh Jacobs rushed for 83 yards last week but averaged an inefficient 3.7 yards per carry. He's rushed for fewer than 70 yards in six of his last nine games, and he could be less than 100% this week since he's dealing with an ankle injury.
The Browns held Baltimore's elite rushing attack to just 45 yards on 21 carries last week, and they're sixth in the league in defensive rush success rate.
Flacco is inefficient and turns the ball over way too much. However, he's also a gunslinger who throws for a decent number of yards — especially if his team falls behind early and he has a negative game script. He's thrown for 250+ yards in four of his last five games.
Packers vs Browns SGP
- Under 41.5
- Josh Jacobs Under 78.5 rushing yards
- Joe Flacco Over 228.5 passing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Back the Pack
- Thanks to QB Jordan Love, the Packers have a significantly better offense than Cleveland, and backing them at -7.5 along with the other legs of this parlay creates a massive non-correlated multiplier.
Packers vs Browns SGP
- Under 41.5
- Josh Jacobs Under 78.5 rushing yards
- Joe Flacco Over 228.5 passing yards
- Packers -7.5
Packers vs Browns odds
- Spread: Packers -7.5 | Browns +7.5
- Moneyline: Packers -450 | Browns +350
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Packers vs Browns trend to know
Both teams have gone 5-2 to the Under in their last seven games. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Browns.
How to watch Packers vs Browns
| Location | Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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