The Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders will both be aiming to right the ship following prime-time Week 2 losses when they meet at Northwest Stadium on Sunday, September 21.
Even with Washington star quarterback Jayden Daniels sidelined with a knee injury, my top NFL picks and Raiders vs. Commanders predictions are calling for the home team to cover the number in Week 3.
Read on for my NFL picks for Sunday, September 21.
Raiders vs Commanders prediction
Raiders vs Commanders Best bet: Commanders -3 (-105)
Before news broke that Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels was nursing a knee injury, the Commanders were one of my favorite bets of the week.
Fast forward four days, and we’re landing Washington at -3, with backup QB Marcus Mariota set to start behind center against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Commanders are coming off their mini bye following a loss on Thursday Night Football in Week 2, while it’s a short week with a cross-continent trip for an early game for the Raiders after being silenced by the Los Angeles Chargers on MNF.
Las Vegas was held to just 218 yards of offense and out of the end zone entirely last week, and QB Geno Smith ranks 29th in adjusted EPA per play and 31st in success rate among 34 qualified QBs through two games.
Returning to Mariota, this is his second season with the organization, and he has 74 starts across his 10-year career. Add a sterling collegiate run at Oregon, which included playing in the National Championship, and the moment won’t be too big for Mariota on Sunday.
Raiders vs Commanders same-game parlay
Vegas ranks 24th in PFF offense grade and 27th in offensive DVOA, while Washington respectively checks in at 22nd and 15th, so neither offense has been overly effective or scoring in bunches.
And, while I am anticipating a solid game from Mariota, he doesn’t bring the same game-breaking ability to the table as Daniels does.
Commanders rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt scored in Week 1, and he’s set to handle a significant workload with backfield mate Austin Ekeler (Achillies’) on injured reserve. I’m also expecting Washington to lean on the running game more with Mariota starting.
Raiders vs Commanders SGP
- Commanders -2.5
- Under 43.5
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Finding Merit!
- While it’s been a quiet start to the season, I’m still expecting Vegas rookie rusher Ashton Jeanty to have his best game of the year and clear this modest total. The Commanders just let Packers RB Josh Jacobs run for 83 yards in Week 2, after all.
Raiders vs Commanders SGP
- Commanders -2.5
- Under 43.5
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt anytime touchdown
- Ashton Jeanty Over 54.5 rushing yards
Raiders vs Commanders odds
- Spread: Raiders +6.5 (-115) | Commanders -6.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Raiders +240 | Commanders -300
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Raiders vs Commanders trend to know
The Washington Commanders have covered the first-half Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.91 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Commanders.
How to watch Raiders vs Commanders
| Location | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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