Jannik Sinner is the slight underdog when he meets defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in Sunday’s French Open final.
Sinner has breezed through the field without dropping a set, and my Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz predictions expect the World No. 1 to best his longtime rival. Find out why in my French Open picks below.
Alcaraz vs Sinner prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Sinner moneyline (+100 at bet365)
- My best bet: Sinner moneyline (+100 at bet365)
Match analysis
Jannik Sinner has dominated the field without dropping a set and has been broken only a handful of times during this fortnight. His serve has been a force, but he’s also demonstrated he can beat the big dogs when his first serve isn’t dominating.
He showcased his dominance on both wings when his serve went off by successfully defending against five of six break points against Novak Djokovic on Friday.
Although he landed only 60% of his first serves, he won 71% of first offerings behind his consistent groundies during his straight-set semifinal victory over three-time champion Novak Djokovic.
Carlos Alcaraz’s path to the final has been filled with speed bumps and inconsistent play. The defending champion's talent is undeniable, but he's dropped four sets during this fortnight and probably caught a break when Lorenzo Musetti retired early in the fourth set.
The Spaniard may be the more accomplished player on this surface, but Sinner has been in the zone consistently throughout his Roland Garros run, and that consistency will earn him his first French Open title.
Best best analysis
These stars have battled each other 11 times before, but never in a Grand Slam final.
Alcaraz has won four straight over his Italian rival and is 2-1 lifetime on the dirt, including a solid victory over a hobbled Sinner to win Rome in straight sets.
The defending champ can turn a deficit into a victory faster than anyone on Tour, but Carlitos’ inconsistency during this entire fortnight has been concerning.
Musetti gave him all that he could handle Friday afternoon, and his overall game isn’t half of what Sinner brings to the table. He repeatedly frustrated Alcaraz with his aggressiveness, and no one has been more aggressive and played big points better than Sinner has during this run at the French Open.
We're getting even money (+100) for a player on a 20-match major winning streak. Alcaraz was the hottest player coming into the event, but Sinner is playing better and more consistently at the moment. I’m betting he beats his arch-rival on Sunday.
Alcaraz vs Sinner odds
| (2) Carlos Alcaraz | (1) Jannik Sinner | |
|---|---|---|
| -110 | Moneyline | -115 |
| +1.5 (-140) | Game spread | -1.5 (+105) |
| Over 39.5 (-115) | Total games | Under 39.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
How to watch Alcaraz vs Sinner
| Location | Court Philippe-Chatrier, Paris, France |
| Date | Sunday, 6-8-2025 |
| Time | 9:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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