It hasn’t always looked pretty, but Carlos Alcaraz has rolled through the French Open field much like he did for most of the clay-court season.
He and Lorenzo Musetti have already tangled twice this spring, and my Musetti vs. Alcaraz predictions expect the clay-court gladiators to let it rip on Friday.
Join me as I break down the French Open odds and offer my best free betting picks for June 6.
Alcaraz vs Musetti prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Alcaraz moneyline (-650 at BetMGM)
- My best bet: Alcaraz moneyline/o33.5 games (+140 at Caesars)
Match analysis
Carlos Alcaraz went 15-1 with two titles and a runner-up trophy during the European clay-court season. Alcaraz beat Musetti twice this spring: in the finals at Monte Carlo (3-6,6-1, 6-0) and the semis in Rome (6-3, 7-6).
Musetti has two weaknesses that Alcaraz typically exploits: the Italian’s second serve is a melon, and he’s vulnerable to drop shots.
The Italian won only 28% of his second-offerings in Rome. That’s a common theme in Musetti matches, and we saw Francis Tiafoe have tremendous success with the drop shot and cross-court pass against the Italian No. 1. Alcaraz will too.
The defending French Open champ has the rally tolerance and too many weapons in his bag for Musetti to deal with. He’s 6-1 lifetime over Musetti, and only Holger Rune has beaten the heavily favored Spaniard this season on this surface.
Musetti will be the biggest test thus far, but Alcaraz has dominated the clay court season, and he’s dominated Musetti. Carlos has dropped three sets thus far, but his 3-0 five-set record at Roland Garros is proof of his ability to refocus (more below) and get the job done.
Best best analysis
Musetti reached at least the semis of all three French Open leadup events. He’s widely considered among the very best on this surface, with the most beautiful one-handed backhand on tour.
Unlike most who face Alcaraz, Musetti has a plan to win and the game to execute it. He caught the Spaniard flat-footed with a relentless attack of monster groundies and took the opening set at Monte Carlo.
Musetti followed the same game plan in Rome, reaching a breaker in a two-set loss to Alcaraz in Rome.
Alcaraz is coming off a straight-set destruction of Tommy Paul. He was focused throughout his match with the American, but sometimes Alcaraz gets distracted, which a talented player like Musetti can, and has, taken advantage of to steal a set.
That leads me to the best bet. Drizzle and significant wind gusts are expected on Friday, and that will slow the court and take some of the air out of Alacaraz’s tires. Musetti has the game to win at least a set, which should push the game total Over 33.5 games.
We’ll parlay the match total with my Alcaraz to win prediction to give us a viable plus-money two-leg same-game parlay.
Alcaraz vs Musetti odds
| (2) Carlos Alcaraz | (8) Lorenzo Musetti | |
|---|---|---|
| -650 | Moneyline | +475 |
| -6.5 (-125) | Game spread | +6.5 (-105) |
| Over 34.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 34.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
How to watch Alcaraz vs Musetti
| Location | Court Philippe-Chatrier, Paris, France |
| Date | Friday, 6-6-2025 |
| Time | 8:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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