It’s been a near-impossible feat for Aryna Sabalenka to capture her first-ever Roland Garros title thanks to the utter domination of Iga Swiatek at this event, but after dispatching her in a quick third set, the World No. 1 has moved into her first final in Paris and is favored in the French Open odds.
The Belarusian will meet a now-two time French Open finalist in Coco Gauff, a player who famously took her down in the US Open final a couple of years ago to claim her first Grand Slam title.
Can Gauff repeat, or is this version of Sabalenka far too menacing?
Let’s break it all down in our Sabalenka vs. Gauff predictions for June 7.
Sabalenka vs Gauff prediction and best bet
- My match prediction: Sabalenka to win (-220 at BetMGM)
- My best bet: Sabalenka to win first set and win match (-138 at FanDuel)
Match analysis
It hasn’t been the most exciting path to the final for Gauff, who’s dropped just one set and hasn’t had to face many noteworthy names in her draw. The one set came in a tight first stanza against fellow American Madison Keys, and even then that was a player who lacks the same ability on clay as she does on a hardcourt.
Interestingly enough, what she’s been able to accomplish on her own half of the court hasn’t looked all that different as her opponent. Gauff’s average forehand speed has come in at 71 mph – one quicker than Sabalenka – and her backhand has been hit two mph quicker as well.
With that said, Sabalenka’s ability to push through the court with her flatter and more precise groundstrokes has made her the better of the two. Sabalenka has hit nearly 60 more winners and 30 fewer unforced errors than Gauff and has had to come up against a far meaner group of opponents.
Sabalenka has had to battle with Swiatek, who’s now lost just three times ever at this tournament in seven years, and Qinwen Zheng, who won gold at last year’s Olympics set at Roland Garros.
The World No. 1 has also bossed the recent head-to-head, too, winning three of the last four dating back to the 2024 Australian Open when she really emerged into this elite-tier player.
Gauff should have a lot to adjust to after coming through a weak group of opponents, and she won’t have the benefit of a rowdy home court behind her in this Grand Slam final rematch.
Best best analysis
If there’s any way into this match for Gauff, it’ll be in the second set once potential nerves set in for Sabalenka. We haven’t seen this happen in some time, but it’s certainly possible – and would make betting the total or even the spread somewhat of a dicey proposition.
I like backing Sabalenka to win the first set, but considering we’re priced out of the moneyline and even the -1.5 game spread, I like this pre-built parlay option. Sabalenka won the first set 6-2 in their US Open final, and she also put up a commanding first-set performance the last time these two met a few weeks ago on the clay in Madrid.
On top of that, Gauff’s only set dropped came in the first – against Keys – and we’ve already covered how this one could start very slowly for the American as well considering she’s coming off some heavy mismatches, particularly her last match against World No. 361 Lois Boisson.
If she does make her way into this match, she’ll have to settle in first.
Sabalenka vs Gauff odds
| (1) Aryna Sabalenka | (2) Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| -225 | Moneyline | +175 |
| -1.5 (-150) | Game spread | +1.5 (+110) |
| 21.5 (-115) | Total games | 21.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
How to watch Sabalenka vs Gauff
| Location | Court Philippe-Chatrier, Paris, France |
| Date | Saturday, 6-7-2025 |
| Time | 9:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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