Lynx vs Mercury Predictions, Picks & Odds for Today’s WNBA Game

The Mercury are down two of their best players, and the Lynx have had the last three days off. Our WNBA betting picks will roll with visiting Minnesota.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Jul 9, 2025 • 12:04 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Minnesota Lynx WNBA Courtney Williams
Photo By - Imagn Images. Minnesota Lynx guard Courtney Williams (10) drives past the defense.

This could have been a massive playoff preview. Discerning fans may see this as even a WNBA Finals preview. But with the Phoenix Mercury missing two of their best three players, this afternoon game has lost much of its luster.

The Minnesota Lynx will not complain about that break. They have been worn out by their schedule of late, and any gift is appreciated, possibly also needed.

My Lynx vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks lean heavily on Minnesota getting all of three days off. Tip comes at 3:30 ET on Wednesday, July 9.

Lynx vs Mercury predictions

My Lynx vs Mercury best bet: Lynx -7 (-110 at FanDuel)

The Minnesota Lynx would never make this excuse, but anyone who watches basketball closely knows the toll that comes with playing six games in 10 days, ending with a back-to-back. Minnesota had a heavier workload than anyone else in the WNBA lately thanks to its success, reaching the Commissioner’s Cup title game.

That wear showed on Sunday, slipping by the Sky by five points despite being a 14.5-point favorite. The Lynx reached the end of that first quarter trailing 24-10. They were a bit worn out.

Three days off is not exactly a bounty, especially when one of those days was devoted to travel and the third day is truncated by an afternoon tip for a “camp game.” But that was still more time off than Minnesota had experienced in about two weeks.

Against the shorthanded Phoenix Mercury, that may be enough. Phoenix is without both Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally, and that should be a problem against the best defense in the WNBA.

The Mercury may have excelled on Monday without those two, but the Lynx defense is 12.5 points better per 100 possessions than the Wings’ is.

A touch of rest should embolden that defense, particularly when this game is tipping off at 12:30 local time. At least for Minnesota, that will feel like 2:30, still earlier than usual but a bit more palatable than it will feel for Phoenix.

Lynx vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)

Lynx -7

Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 assists

Courtney Williams Over 1.5 3-pointers

Sure, Alyssa Thomas had 15 assists without Copper and Sabally on Monday, but that came in part because Sami Whitcomb went off for 36 points on 12-of-19 shooting. That will not be repeated today, not against this defense.

Thomas is not going to regularly stuff the stat sheet as much without her top two scoring targets on hand. In fact, she may need to shoulder some of the scoring burden herself.

Adding a Courtney Williams prop to a same-game parlay is always a risk. She is one of the most mercurial players in the WNBA.

But when she is good, she is great. And she has been mostly great lately, clearing this prop in seven of her last nine games while shooting 16-of-38 from deep (42.1%).

Lynx vs Mercury odds

Lynx vs Mercury live odds

Lynx vs Mercury opening odds

  • Spread: Minnesota -7.5 | Phoenix +7.5
  • Moneyline: Minnesota -300 | Phoenix +200
  • Over/Under: Over 163.5 | Under 163.5

Lynx vs Mercury trend

Minnesota is 9-4 against the spread since June 2. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Mercury.

How to watch Lynx vs Mercury

Location PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ
Date Wednesday, 7-9-2025
Tip-off 3:30 p.m. ET
TV FDSNNO, KTVK

Lynx vs Mercury latest injuries

Lynx: Karlie Samuelson (Out)
Mercury: Kahleah Copper (Out), Satou Sabally (Out), Lexi Held (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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