This could have been a massive playoff preview. Discerning fans may see this as even a WNBA Finals preview. But with the Phoenix Mercury missing two of their best three players, this afternoon game has lost much of its luster.
The Minnesota Lynx will not complain about that break. They have been worn out by their schedule of late, and any gift is appreciated, possibly also needed.
My Lynx vs. Mercury predictions and WNBA picks lean heavily on Minnesota getting all of three days off. Tip comes at 3:30 ET on Wednesday, July 9.
Lynx vs Mercury predictions
My Lynx vs Mercury best bet: Lynx -7 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Minnesota Lynx would never make this excuse, but anyone who watches basketball closely knows the toll that comes with playing six games in 10 days, ending with a back-to-back. Minnesota had a heavier workload than anyone else in the WNBA lately thanks to its success, reaching the Commissioner’s Cup title game.
That wear showed on Sunday, slipping by the Sky by five points despite being a 14.5-point favorite. The Lynx reached the end of that first quarter trailing 24-10. They were a bit worn out.
Three days off is not exactly a bounty, especially when one of those days was devoted to travel and the third day is truncated by an afternoon tip for a “camp game.” But that was still more time off than Minnesota had experienced in about two weeks.
Against the shorthanded Phoenix Mercury, that may be enough. Phoenix is without both Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally, and that should be a problem against the best defense in the WNBA.
The Mercury may have excelled on Monday without those two, but the Lynx defense is 12.5 points better per 100 possessions than the Wings’ is.
A touch of rest should embolden that defense, particularly when this game is tipping off at 12:30 local time. At least for Minnesota, that will feel like 2:30, still earlier than usual but a bit more palatable than it will feel for Phoenix.
Lynx vs Mercury same-game parlay (SGP)
Lynx -7
Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 assists
Courtney Williams Over 1.5 3-pointers
Sure, Alyssa Thomas had 15 assists without Copper and Sabally on Monday, but that came in part because Sami Whitcomb went off for 36 points on 12-of-19 shooting. That will not be repeated today, not against this defense.
Thomas is not going to regularly stuff the stat sheet as much without her top two scoring targets on hand. In fact, she may need to shoulder some of the scoring burden herself.
Adding a Courtney Williams prop to a same-game parlay is always a risk. She is one of the most mercurial players in the WNBA.
But when she is good, she is great. And she has been mostly great lately, clearing this prop in seven of her last nine games while shooting 16-of-38 from deep (42.1%).
Lynx vs Mercury odds
Lynx vs Mercury live odds
Lynx vs Mercury opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -7.5 | Phoenix +7.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -300 | Phoenix +200
- Over/Under: Over 163.5 | Under 163.5
Lynx vs Mercury trend
Minnesota is 9-4 against the spread since June 2. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Mercury.
How to watch Lynx vs Mercury
| Location | PHX Arena, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, 7-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSNNO, KTVK |
Lynx vs Mercury latest injuries
Lynx: Karlie Samuelson (Out)
Mercury: Kahleah Copper (Out), Satou Sabally (Out), Lexi Held (Out)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
