For those unfamiliar, the WNBA plays a series of weekday games early in the afternoon in July. These are generally referred to as “camp games,” because they feature thousands of schoolchildren in the stands, in attendance as part of summer camp.
This is a great way to grow the league and to secure the most passionate fans. Anyone criticizing these games is missing the greater purpose of sports.
And just because a game tips off early does not mean it cannot be bet on. I have a pair of WNBA picks to prove that, with one pick reserved for the Wings-Sky nightcap.
WNBA player prop bets for July 9
Clark u17.5 pts (-120)
Thomas u8.5 asts (-108)
Reese u14.5 rebs (-120)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
Caitlin Clark Under 17.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
There is an argument that the WNBA does not protect Caitlin Clark enough. It is nothing but headline fodder.
But there could be an argument that too much is expected from Clark, mainly from her over-the-top fans. She should not be an All-Star captain, probably not even an All-Star this season given she has missed half the Indiana Fever’s games. But as the leading fan vote-getter, Clark is a captain, and thus there is added pressure on her to play in the All-Star Game in 10 days.
It would be smarter to let her miss another five games and get two more weeks of rest. It was rushing back from and compensating for a quad injury that created the groin strain that cost Clark the last two-plus weeks.
Instead, Clark is returning against a surprisingly stout Valkyries’ defense. Facing the No. 3 defensive rating in the WNBA at an unusual start time that will lead to abridged game prep is a recipe for a minutes limit, if nothing else.
Alyssa Thomas Under 8.5 assists (-108 at FanDuel)
Two days ago, Alyssa Thomas had a lofty assists prop of 10.5. The Over had odds of about +120. With Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally sidelined, it was a bold line. And it cashed easily, Thomas dishing out 15 assists in a 30-point win.
Then why did this line fall by two assists?
In part because some of those 15 assists came from Sami Whitcomb exploding for 36 points on 12-of-19 shooting, including 7-of-11 from deep. There is no scenario where that should be repeated this afternoon.
And mostly because the Phoenix Mercury and Thomas are now facing the best defense in the WNBA. Whitcomb and Thomas enjoyed that success against the Dallas Wings; the Minnesota Lynx defense is 12.5 points better per 100 possessions than the Wings’.
Without Copper and Sabally, Thomas’ assists will fall, even if Monday was the exception that proved this rule.
Angel Reese Under 14.5 rebounds (-120 at DraftKings)
Angel Reese has been on a mission lately. She has cleared this lofty prop in six straight games, averaging 17 rebounds per game in that stretch.
But facing the best rebounding team in the WNBA should slow down that roll. The Wings secure a league-high 52.7% of available rebounds. Fittingly, Reese snagged just nine rebounds in each of her two games earlier this season against Dallas.
The Wings find success on the glass via a group effort. No one on the roster snags more than 20% of available rebounds — Reese is at 23.5% this year — but four Dallas rotation players find more than 14.5% of available rebounds, with another four rotation players in double digits in that rate.
Group effort is required to slow down Reese. This is perhaps the one matchup in the WNBA — aside from the New York Liberty when Jonquel Jones is healthy — that can handle Reese’s rebounding.
Today’s WNBA games
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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