The WNBA rarely features back-to-backs, unlike the NBA. With only 13 teams, not even the WNBA’s condensed schedule really requires them.
And yet, the Minnesota Lynx are on the second day of a back-to-back for the second time this week. This grueling stretch is wearing on the best team in the WNBA, as exhibited by yesterday’s upset loss to the shorthanded Mercury.
These WNBA picks and prop predictions expect more struggles from Minnesota, simply because of the schedule fatigue, with Kelsey Plum ready to take advantage. Plus, a pair of WNBA props for tonight's Aces-Mystics showdown.
WNBA player prop bets for July 10
Plum o2.5 3s (+140)
Austin o14.5 pts (-105)
Young o17.5 pts (-114)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
Kelsey Plum Over 2.5 3-pointers (+140 at BetMGM)
The Lynx have the best defense in the WNBA, but they are also exhausted, playing a grueling stretch before the All-Star Break and on their second back-to-back this week alone. This afternoon will be Minnesota’s eighth game in the last 14 days.
Such is the cost of reaching the Commissioner’s Cup title game.
That showed in a loss to Phoenix yesterday despite being a 7-point favorite, not to mention the Mercury shooting just 1-of-16 from deep.
Los Angeles should shoot better than that, only partly because the Sparks have been off since Saturday.
Kelsey Plum has cleared this prop just four times in her last nine games, but that rate alone suggests value in this +140 payout. Against a flagging defense, Plum should get a few more open looks today, and that ought to yield at least three triples.
Shakira Austin Over 14.5 points (-105 at BetMGM)
Las Vegas superstar and reigning MVP A’ja Wilson landed hard on her wrist on Tuesday against the Liberty, missing the entire second half due to it. Wilson is officially listed as questionable for tonight.
But that wrist may be too sore to trust, even if she takes the court. At that point, protecting the wrist will be only natural.
That should set up Shakira Austin for a few extra open looks, not that she inherently needs them. Austin has cleared this prop in five of her last seven games, a stretch that directly coincides with her first 30-minute game of the season.
Past injury concerns kept Austin to a gradual workload to start the season, to her chagrin. When the restrictions were finally lifted, Austin immediately rewarded the Mystics for that added playing time. Taking an average of 13.4 shots per game, Austin has averaged 17.7 points since June 20.
A limited Wilson furthers faith in Austin, but that faith should be there, regardless.
Jackie Young Over 17.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)
If Wilson is at all limited, logic expects Jackie Young to take on a larger role, even larger than the significant one she already shoulders.
Only Wilson’s 31.6% usage rate exceeds Young’s 27.2% on the Las Vegas roster. More Young is hardly an efficient offense, but it is a bit of a default without Wilson.
Facing the league-median defense — at No. 7 in defensive rating, a tenth of a point per 100 possessions better than the Storm at No. 8 — Young could certainly clear this prop with Wilson at full-go, too. She has done so in four of eight games since Wilson returned from a concussion in late August.
That is the challenge when dealing with an injury as game-defining as Wilson’s: Can you find a prop that is more likely to cash without her but is also still likely to cash with her? Young’s points prop threads that needle.
Today’s WNBA games
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
