The two best teams in the WNBA play today, as do the remains of the most recent dynasty in the league.
These WNBA picks will focus more on the Minnesota Lynx than on the New York Liberty, but the Las Vegas Aces cannot yet be ignored, even as they are barely scraping into the playoff picture.
Trust the two best players in the WNBA on Sunday, July 6.
WNBA player prop bets for July 6
Wilson u23.5 pts (-125)
Collier o8.5 rebs (+120)- Collier o3.5 asts (+112)
Today's best WNBA player props bets
A’ja Wilson Under 23.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
The Connecticut Sun have the worst defense in the WNBA, by far. It is 3.5 points worse per 100 possessions than the second-worst defense in the WNBA, and trailing the moribund Sky defense by that much is scary to think about.
But that is the exact reason to doubt A’ja Wilson will score 24 or more points today. She has reached that number in her last two games and in three of her last five, but Wilson has not been her usual points-producing self this season. The reigning MVP has cleared this prop in just five of 14 games this season after averaging 26.9 points last year.
Wilson is not worse. The Aces are.
But they should not look that way today. The Sun are too terrible, hence being 17.5-point underdogs. Las Vegas should cruise to victory, just as it did two weeks ago in a 26-point home win against Connecticut. Of note, Wilson played only 27 minutes and scored just 22 points.
She should not need to play 30 minutes today. And with the Aces facing the Liberty on Tuesday, a lessened workload today could yield benefits in the immediate future.
Napheesa Collier Over 8.5 rebounds (+120 at DraftKings)
One can reasonably argue Alanna Smith has been the Minnesota Lynx’s third-best player this season. When the WNBA All-Star reserves were announced on Sunday, not including her was laughable.
But she probably would not have played. A knee injury on a flagrant foul Saturday night limited Smith to just 19 minutes in a win against the Valkyries.
As of 1:00 p.m. ET, the Lynx have not released an injury report for tonight’s matchup with the Chicago Sky, not entirely unusual on the second day of a back-to-back. Let’s consider Smith uncertain, as she returned to Minnesota’s bench Saturday night, but never neared action.
If Smith is indeed sidelined, Napheesa Collier will need to do a bit more of everything against Chicago, points becoming one of her lesser priorities. Collier has cleared this rebound prop just once in the last six games, but its plus-money possibility combined with Smith’s uncertain status creates value.
Napheesa Collier Over 3.5 assists (+112 at FanDuel)
Let's keep focusing on the possible vacuum created by Smith’s uncertain status. She is averaging three assists per game this season, often filling a similar playmaking role at the elbow as Napheesa Collier does.
But that knee injury to Smith could leave only Collier moving the ball from the elbow tonight. She has already cleared this prop in eight of her last 11 games, and facing the second-worst defense in the WNBA should allow Collier to move the ball rather than dominate it.
Smith is underrated. But so is Collier.
If Smith is sidelined, Collier’s hefty workload will only increase until the game is out of hand, her all-around game able to fill Smith’s possible absence.
Today’s WNBA games
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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