The best team in the WNBA hosts one of the absolute worst defenses in the WNBA tonight, and if that sounds lopsided, it may end up being even more so.
The Minnesota Lynx are 14.5-point favorites despite some injuries cutting into their depth, and the Chicago Sky can probably thank a shocking upset a week ago for continued Minnesota focus.
My Sky vs. Lynx predictions and WNBA picks emphasize Napheesa Collier’s responsibilities when facing an overmatched defense but perhaps down a playmaker. Tip comes at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday, July 6.
Sky vs Lynx predictions
My Sky vs Lynx best bet: Napheesa Collier Over 3.5 assists (+112 at FanDuel)
A flagrant foul knocked Alanna Smith out of the Minnesota Lynx’s win on Saturday night, the Australian forward playing just 19 minutes before that knee worry sent her first to the tunnels under Target Center and then to the end of the Lynx bench.
Returning to the bench bodes well for Smith’s long-term health, but her not returning to the game suggests there was some genuine concern over the injury. Favored by more than 14 points tonight, Minnesota should not need Smith to beat the Chicago Sky, so some caution would be smart.
Assume Smith is out until an update states otherwise. And without her operating at the elbow, even more playmaking duties will fall to Napheesa Collier.
Smith is averaging three assists per game this season while Collier has averaged 3.5. Both often operate from the high-post, moving the ball around the offense. Without Smith occupying that space, more work should fall to Collier.
She has already cleared this prop in eight of her last 12 games. Facing a defense as terrible as Chicago’s should lessen Collier’s instinct to look for points. Instead, she can involve her teammates, perhaps at will.
Sky vs Lynx same-game parlay (SGP)
Napheesa Collier 4+ assists
Napheesa Collier Over 8.5 rebounds
Napheesa Collier Under 21.5 points
Betting on Collier to clear her rebounding prop is entirely a bet based on Smith’s possible absence. Collier has cleared this prop just twice in her last seven games, though immediately before this lull, she did top it in six straight games.
In those six straight games of 9+ rebounds, Alanna Smith averaged 4.5. In Collier’s last seven games, Smith has averaged 6.4 rebounds, a number that ticks up to 6.7 when removing last night’s five boards in just 19 minutes before injury.
Simply put, if Smith is out, Collier should find more rebounds. Her numbers have trended downward lately in no small part because Smith is playing so well.
However, Collier should not need to play all out tonight. Chicago is not quality enough to demand that. Doubting Collier to score 22 points escalates this SGP, even if it makes complete sense with that assist prop.
Sky vs Lynx odds
Sky vs Lynx live odds
Sky vs Lynx opening odds
- Spread: Chicago +14.5 | Minnesota -14.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +730 | Minnesota -1,300
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 | Under 160.5
Sky vs Lynx trend
The Lynx are 10-0 at home this season, the Commissioner’s Cup title game not technically counting in official records. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sky vs. Lynx.
How to watch Sky vs Lynx
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Sunday, 7-6-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN North, KARE 11 |
Sky vs Lynx latest injuries
Sky: Courtney Vandersloot G (Out).
Lynx: Alanna Smith F (Questionable), Karlie Samuelson G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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