The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are set to embark on a captivating weekend series in Queens after some strong starts to their respective seasons, and with dueling 5-5 records in their past 10 games it would seem the outcome is very much hanging in the balance.
Without much between the two starters in Friday’s opening game, my Cubs vs. Mets predictions will explain why the pair should be able to maintain their solid numbers through the first month and a half of play.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Friday, May 9.
Cubs vs Mets prediction
My Cubs vs Mets best bet: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (-140 at DraftKings)
We should be treated to a solid pitching matchup on a wet, cold night in Queens between two hurlers who have been effective in their own, unique ways.
Clay Holmes hasn’t quite shaken off his issues with walks and hit batsmen, but thus far he’s been able to effectively pitch to contact on the ground while keeping his strikeout rate high at 25%. It’s a significant development considering Holmes, the former New York Yankees’ closer, has thrown many more pitches in his transition to a starting role but hasn’t lost what’s made him good.
With a .225 Expected Batting Average and improved .327 Expected Slugging, there’s nothing here suggesting Holmes is any less dominant, and as long as he can keep his walk rate around the league average – which he’s done thus far – he should continue looking like a reliable rotation arm.
Jameson Taillon hasn’t quite had the same numbers under the hood with a .260 xBA and .450 xSLG, but he’s been a little better at limiting baserunners on a consistent basis with a heavy fly-ball approach which has come along with plenty of strikes.
His walk rate is incredibly low at 5% and while he’s struck out just 19.5% of the batters he’s faced, he’s relied upon a solid Chicago Cubs outfield which ranks third in Outs Above Average and a park tailored towards fly-ballers like him.
All in all, it’s shaping up to be a great spot to play both pitchers. There’s a slight concern here with the Cubs’ excellent plate discipline which leads me to believe they may pull this one out, but neither team has a discernable edge when you compare their splits against ground-ball or fly-ball pitchers.
On top of that, the conditions in New York – where the air is cold and heavy – should mitigate the risk brought on by playing Taillon against a team which can drive the ball in the air.
Cubs vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
First Five Innings Under 4.5
Clay Holmes Under 4.5 strikeouts
Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ hits
This is a rather precarious spot for Holmes, heading up against a Cubs team which remains one of the most disciplined in the league. Chicago is striking out in just 19.4% of plate appearances over the last two weeks, and while its walk rate is slightly down it still stands around 9% which will work against the right-hander as he nibbles in search of strikeouts.
I suspect Holmes will throw a lot of pitches here as a result, and that should further take the steam out of this already-fadeable strikeout total which the former Yankee has failed to hit in two straight.
I also want to play the narrative with Pete Crow-Armstrong against his former team, but more than that I want to capitalize on the fact that he’s leading the Cubs in total bases versus ground-ball hitters. He’s hitting .261 across his past two series and owns an .862 OPS in the split against ground-ballers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Mets odds
Cubs vs Mets live odds
Cubs vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Chicago +115 | New York -135
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-164) | New York -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Cubs vs Mets trend
The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 34 games (+17.45 Units / 43% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Mets.
How to watch Cubs vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, New York |
| yDate | Friday, 5-9-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network, MARQ, SNY, SportsNet+ |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Jameson Taillon (2-1, 3.86 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Clay Holmes (4-1, 2.95 ERA) |
Cubs vs Mets latest injuries
Cubs vs Mets weather
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