Two struggling starters face off when Jordan Hicks and the San Francisco Giants take on Chris Paddack and the Minnesota Twins.
Both starters have an ERA north of 5.00, so it’s no surprise we’ve got a total of 9.0 for this matchup. However, I think one of the starters has the edge here and could help stake his team to an early lead.
My Giants vs. Twins predictions bring you MLB picks for this interleague showdown with first pitch set to go at Target Field in Minnesota at 8:10 pm ET on Friday, May 9.
Giants vs Twins prediction
My Giants vs Twins best bet: Giants -0.5 — first five innings (+116 at FanDuel)
The San Francisco Giants are off to a great start this season, particularly when you consider how competitive the National League West is.
But Jordan Hicks hasn’t really been a part of that success. The 28-year-old right-hander is in his second season since being converted to a starter after years of being an excellent reliever, and the numbers appear to say maybe he should have stayed in the bullpen.
Hicks enters this game with an ugly 6.03 ERA and has less than a strikeout an inning. That said, there are some signs that he could turn things around soon.
For starters, he’s put together solid back-to-back outings even if they were against the Texas Rangers and the Colorado Rockies.
Additionally, his expected ERA sits a big two and a half runs lower at 3.52. And his sinker is still one of the toughest pitches in baseball to barrel up. He ranks in the 85th percentile in barrel rate and the 96th percentile in ground ball rate.
That should play well against the Minnesota Twins tonight. The Twins enter this game ranked 23rd in batting average, 19th in OPS, and 20th in wRC+. They also have the 10th highest ground ball rate in baseball.
Countering Hicks is Twins right-hander Chris Paddack, and unlike Hicks, his 5.57 ERA is fairly reflective to his season at this point.
Paddack owns a 5.01 xERA while allowing a .263 expected batting average. Those rank in the 21st and 34th percentiles, respectively. Also opposite of Hicks, his ground ball rate is in the 28th percentile.
He faces a Giants lineup that ranks 13th in slugging percentage and one that has plated 8.2 runs per game over their last six contests. He’s also had some issues with the Giants in the past, thanks to his time with the San Diego Padres. Current Giants hitters have a combined .300 xBA and a .582 xSLG vs Paddack.
I think there is value in the Giants to jump out to an early lead and at least hold it through five innings.
Giants vs Twins same-game parlay (SGP)
Giants -0.5 — first five innings
Jordan Hicks Under 15.5 outs recorded
Matt Chapman Over 1.5 total bases
While I think there is some value in Hicks to be a little better than Paddack tonight, it doesn’t necessarily mean I like him to pitch long into the Minnesota night.
Hick isn’t always the most efficient pitcher and he can rack up his pitch count quickly with walks. He ranks in the 44th percentile in walk rate and has issued two or more free passes in all but two of his starts this season.
High pitch counts mean shorter outings. He managed just five innings pitched in three straight starts and in four of five. His outs recorded prop is at 15.5. Let’s take the Under to mess with the algorithm a bit.
And let’s close this same-game parlay out with Matt Chapman to go Over 1.5 total bases. The notoriously streaky hitter is on an upswing right now, collecting five hits in the last series against the Chicago Cubs, and is hitting .318 with two home runs over his last six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Twins odds
Giants vs Twins live odds
Giants vs Twins opening odds
- Moneyline: San Francisco +100 | Minnesota -120
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 (-160) | Minnesota -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 | Under 9.0
Giants vs Twins trend
The Giants have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 away games for +4.75 Units and a 19% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Twins.
How to watch Giants vs Twins and game info
| Location | Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| Date | Friday, 5-9-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Giants starting pitcher | Jordan Hicks (1-3, 6.03 ERA) |
| Twins starting pitcher | NAME (X-X, X.XX ERA) |
Giants vs Twins latest injuries
Giants vs Twins weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
