No walk props today after they kicked me hard yesterday. We went big on that doubleheader and learned that the Rockies are just an awful team, and projections on them might be too generous even at Coors. It’s Friday, and my MLB picks will come back big to end the week.
These are my favorite pitcher props for Friday, May 9.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 9
Vasquez to record win (+165)
Martinez u17.5 outs (+120)
Nola u17.5 outs (+146)
Today's SP best bets
Padres vs. Rockies
The angle: The Rockies are coming off a doubleheader and the books still can't price them bad enough
The move: Randy Vasquez to record win (+165 at bet365)
The Rockies are god-awful. The projections like them because it’s tough to be that bad and Coors masks some of the stink, but I’m not buying it. Colorado is as bad as it comes and the Rockies got hit early and often yesterday in the doubleheader as their starters allowed 16 runs over the two games.
They also own one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Three runs on nine hits over two games isn’t moving the needle, either. From top to bottom, this club stinks and any opposing pitcher to record the win is a great bet.
Randy Vasquez is priced this high because he doesn’t push more than 15 outs much, which is needed to be able to be in line for the win. He has walk issues, which drives his pitch count up, but this is Colorado. He could go 18 outs today no problem, and might be asked to.
If you’re cheeky, add his Over 1.5 walks to push this to +350 as I don’t think bet365 is pricing that correlation correctly. Unfortunately, not many books allow both of those markets for SGP purposes.
Fade the Rocks all day, and even more when it’s Anthony Senzatela starting, who has a 1-5 win/loss record and has gotten crushed at Coors.
Reds vs. Astros
The angle: Martinez's short leash makes for a tough ask to get 18 outs
The move: Nick Martinez Under 17.5 outs (+120 at bet365)
Nick Martinez has averaged 85 pitches over seven starts and has thrown more than 90 just two times. It’s a road start where THE BAT is projecting 16.56 outs on 87 pitches. He is 4-3 to the Under on this prop this year and has yet to get 18 outs over his three road starts.
This is a good Under down to even money. He is a low-K% pitcher who gets the majority of his outs in the air with a 33% groundball rate. That should help him stay out of double plays, which are Under-out killers. The Houston bats are starting to wake up, too.
Phillies vs. Guardians
The angle: Nola is coming off a 109-pitch outing and is dealing with a slight neck injury
The move: Aaron Nola Under 17.5 outs (+146 at FanDuel)
THE BAT is projecting 17.40 outs from the Phillies starter on 98 pitches, but there is a chance he sees a lighter workload. Aaron Nola, who struggled mightily at the beginning of the season, is coming off a 109-pitch game where he almost was scratched because of a neck injury. His neck could always flare up again and management might keep him on a shorter leash.
Nola has thrown more than 109 pitches just once over his last three seasons. It’s not a spot he hits often, and that combined with some early-season struggles and facing a Cleveland team that takes a lot of pitches is a great spot for this plus-money prop tonight.
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