Let’s kick off the weekend by driving in some winners in the form of MLB player props.
The bases are loaded with options as all 30 teams take the field tonight, and I’m here to hit a home run with my three favorites. They include a fade of the slumping Marcus Semien on Friday, May 9.
Best MLB player props today
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Semien u0.5 hits (+155) -
Schanuel o1.5 TB (+160) -
Guerrero Jr. o0.5 RBI (+200)
MLB props for May 9
Marcus Semien Under 0.5 hits (+155 at bet365)
It looked a little bit like Marcus Semien was going to pull himself out of his season-long slump that actually dates back to last year. The Texas Rangers' second baseman went on a six-game hitting streak at the end of April.
Unfortunately, Semien's success was short-lived. He’s going through another drought at the dish.
The two-time Silver Slugger winner has just three hits, none for extra bases, over 23 plate appearances in his last six games. The latest drought has dropped his batting average to .179 with an even more dismal OPS sitting at .490.
And it doesn’t get any easier tonight, as Semien will have to dig in against reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers.
Skubal has bounced back after looking a little rusty to start the season. The left-hander has allowed just three earned runs over his last five starts, limiting opponents to a .209 batting average while striking out 38 batters in 30 innings of work during that stretch.
The advanced numbers for Skubal are also sparkling. A 2.88 expected ERA and in the 88th percentile or better in average exit velocity, whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard hit percentage.
And while Semien has hit a little better against southpaws, his K-rate against them goes way up. That’s not exactly a recipe for success against Skubal or a bullpen with the second-best ERA in baseball.
Take Semien to put up a zero in the hits column tonight at very good plus money. It's something he's done in four of his last six games.
Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 total bases (+160 at bet365)
It feels like you’re never going to go broke fading Baltimore Orioles pitching this season. So, let’s do just that when they visit the Los Angeles Angels tonight.
Now, they hand the ball to Tomoyuki Sugano for the opener of this three-game series, and you might think he’s been one of the lone bright spots in the rotation entering this game with a 3.00 ERA. Unfortunately for Sugano, the advanced numbers say the Japanese right-hander has been a little lucky to this point.
Sugano’s expected ERA is 5.45, and his opponent expected batting average is .297, both of which are in the Bottom 15% among MLB pitchers. He also doesn’t strike out many batters, ranking in the fifth percentile in K-rate.
So, while the Angels aren’t exactly sluggers at the plate these days, they do have some guys who can put the bat on the ball consistently, including first baseman Nolan Schanuel.
Schanuel doesn’t have a ton of pop in his bat, but he can square up a baseball and doesn’t strikeout much, which looks like a perfect combination to attack Sugano with.
He’s also in a groove at the dish. Schanuel is hitting .412 with a .971 OPS over his last five games, with three multi-hit games during that stretch.
Whacking a double or another multi-hit game is definitely on the table. And seeing his Over 1.5 total bases sitting at +160, my MLB picks are backing the Halos hitter to cash this bet for the fourth time in his last six games.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+200 at bet365)
The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners open a three-game set at T-Mobile Park on Friday night with what looks like a pitcher’s duel as Kevin Gausman toes the rubber against Luis Castillo.
While these two are still solid starters, these aren’t the guys they were a couple of years ago. So, I think this total of 7.5 is a little deceiving, and we could see a flurry of hits and runs tonight in Seattle.
Castillo has seen the average velocity dip on his fastball nearly three miles per hour over the last three seasons, and as a result, he hasn’t been as effective. The 32-year-old enters tonight’s game with a 4.07 expected ERA and a .254 opponent expected batting average. Both rank in the 44th percentile among MLB pitchers.
His strikeout rate has also plummeted. It is currently sitting at 18.2%. His career K-rate is 26%.
The Blue Jays also tagged him when they last met on April 20 in Toronto, racking up 10 hits over five innings.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette were responsible for four of those hits, with Bichette hitting two singles and Guerrero whacking a single and a double.
While the home runs aren’t where Guerrero would like them to be at this point in the season, his advanced numbers are all great, ranking in the 91st percentile or better in expected batting average, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed.
Basically, he’s hitting the ball hard and often. And he’s hitting behind a guy who’s had recent success against Castillo and ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected batting average this season.
At +200, there is real value for Vladdy to drive in a run tonight.
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