2025 MLB Draft Odds: Kade Anderson Leapfrogs Ethan Holliday As Favorite to Go No. 1

Ethan Holliday was the betting favorite to be selected by the Nationals with the top pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, but with the first round coming up tonight, a college pitcher is now favored to be No. 1.

Jason Wilson - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jason Wilson • Betting Analyst
Jul 13, 2025 • 13:23 ET • 4 min read
MLB Draft odds 2025 Kade Anderson LSU
Photo By - Imagn Images. LSU Tigers starting pitcher Kade Anderson (32) pitches during the College World Series Final.

The 2025 MLB Draft kicks off tonight, with the first round beginning in Atlanta.

MLB odds for who will go first overall long had Ethan Holliday — a high-school infielder and brother to Jackson Holliday — favored to land with the Washington Nationals... but the odds have recently shifted to see a college pitcher go No. 1.

Will LSU's Kade Anderson follow in Paul Skenes' footsteps? Let's look at the latest MLB Draft odds.

2025 MLB Draft: Odds to go first overall

Player (Position - School) DraftKings FanDuel
Kade Anderson (LHP - LSU) -220 -320
Ethan Holliday (SS/3B - Stillwater High School) +200 +155
Aiva Arquett (SS - Oregon State) +1200 +2400
Seth Hernandez (RHP - Corona High School) +1500 +2900
Liam Doyle (LHP - Tennessee) +2000 +4200
Any Other Player +500 OTB
Jamie Arnold (LHP - Florida State) +2500 +4200
Billy Carlson (SS - Corona High School) +7500 +5000
Kyson Witherspoon (RHP - Oklahoma) +10000 +5000
Jace LaViolette (OF - Texas A&M) +20000 OTB

Odds last updated on 7-13.

Favorites to be picked first overall in the 2025 MLB draft

The Nats are currently expected to go with a pitcher, with the odds suggesting they will go the college route and take LSU standout Kade Anderson, who is currently first on the odds board. The 6-foot-2 lefty went 12-1 with a 3.33 ERA as a sophomore for College World Series champion LSU this season, including a complete game shutout (with 10 strikeouts) in the first game of the CWS Final.

His strong performances in the CWS saw him jump from No. 2 to No. 1 on the odds board over the last month, leapfrogging Ethan Holliday, a high school senior out of Stillwater, OK. His older brother, Jackson Holliday, was the last high-schooler to go first overall when the Baltimore Orioles picked him in 2022. Before that, Royce Lewis was the last prep star to go No. 1 (to the Minnesota Twins in 2017).

Ethan is larger than his brother, standing at 6-foot-4 (Jackson is 6-foot), and has considerable power from the left side. He has elite plate discipline for an 18-year-old, and while the Washington Nationals may more desperately need to add a pitcher to their young core, the younger Holliday may be too good to pass up.

The Athletic's Keith Law considered this a fairly weak draft class up top and isn't as keen on Anderson as the oddsmakers, ranking him third in his latest draft rankings. Still, he sees him as a polished enough player who could believably reach the majors within 18 months of being drafted, which is less likely for a high school player even of Holliday's pedigree.

Instead, Law ranks Tennessee lefty Liam Doyle (+1500 to +4200) as the best pitcher in the class (and second overall to Holliday). Doyle struck out 164 batters in 95 2/3 innings in 2025. He sits 96-99 with his fastball and doesn't issue a lot of walks. 

The 2025 landscape is notably different because last year's draft was extremely college-heavy. Each of the first eight players selected in the first round was a college player (two pitchers, six position players). Infielder Konnor Griffin was the first prep player taken, going to the Pittsburgh Pirates with the ninth-overall selection.

2025 1st Round MLB Draft order

Pick Team
1 Nationals Washington Nationals
2 Angels Los Angeles Angels 
3 Mariners Seattle Mariners
4 Rockies Colorado Rockies
5 Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals
6 Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 
7 Marlins Miami Marlins
8 Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays
9 Reds Cincinnati Reds 
10 White Sox Chicago White Sox 
11 Athletics A's
12 Rangers Texas Rangers 
13 Giants San Francisco Giants
14 Rays Tampa Bay Rays 
15 Red Sox Boston Red Sox
16 Twins Minnesota Twins
17 Cubs Chicago Cubs 
18 Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks
19 Orioles Baltimore Orioles 
20 Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 
21 Astros Houston Astros
22 Braves Atlanta Braves
23 Royals Kansas City Royals
24 Tigers Detroit Tigers
25 Padres San Diego Padres
26 Phillies Philadelphia Phillies
27 Guardians Cleveland Guardians 
28 - Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick Royals Kansas City Royals
29 - Compensation pick Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks
30 - Compensation pick Orioles Baltimore Orioles
31 - Compensation pick Orioles Baltimore Orioles
32 - Compensation pick Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 
33 - Start of competitive balance Round A Red Sox Boston Red Sox
34  Tigers Detroit Tigers
35 Mariners Seattle Mariners
36 Guardians Cleveland Guardians 
37 Rays Tampa Bay Rays 
38 Mets New York Mets
39 Yankees New York Yankees
40 Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
41 Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers
42 Rays Tampa Bay Rays 
43 Marlins Miami Marlins
  • The Nationals won the draft lottery at the 2024 Winter Meetings. They had a 10.2% chance of receiving the top pick before the team was called. This marks the third time that the Nationals will make the first selection at the draft, after taking Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper in back-to-back years (2009, 2010).

  • Despite finishing with the worst record in baseball, the Chicago White Sox will select 10th due to draft lottery rules.

  • The Royals received a "prospect promotion incentive pick" because Bobby Witt Jr. was an MVP finalist before reaching arbitration.

  • The Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Brewers each received compensation picks for Christian Walker, Corbin Burnes, Anthony Santander, and Willy Adames signing with other teams after being tendered qualifying offers.

  • The Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees exceeded the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax and each received a 10-pick penalty for their first draft picks.

  • The Red Sox received the 33rd pick (from Competitive Balance Round A) from the Brewers in exchange for SP Quinn Priester.

  • The Dodgers received the 41st pick from the Reds in the Gavin Lux deal.

  • The Rays received the 42nd pick from the A's in the trade for Jeffrey Springs and Jacob Lopez.

Popular MLB futures markets


Recent MLB Draft history

Here is a look back at the last 10 first overall selections:

Year Player Position Team
2024 Travis Bazzana 2B Guardians Guardians
2023 Paul Skenes RHP Pirates Pirates
2022 Jackson Holliday SS Orioles Orioles
2021 Henry Davis C Pirates Pirates
2020 Spencer Torkelson 1B Tigers Tigers
2019 Adley Rutschman C Orioles Orioles
2018 Casey Mize RHP Tigers Tigers
2017 Royce Lewis SS Twins Twins
2016 Mickey Moniak CF Phillies Phillies
2015 Dansby Swanson SS Diamondbacks Diamondbacks

Covers MLB betting tools


Understanding MLB Draft betting

Most sportsbooks will display odds in the American format as listed above. When Jonathan India emerged as the National League Rookie of the Year in 2021, his odds had a minus (-) sign ahead of the number down the stretch. 

Jonathan India -1200

That means that a bettor in September had to wager $1,200 to win $100 by betting on India to win NL Rookie of the Year. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus (+) sign ahead of their odds.

Reid Detmers +2000

That means a bettor would profit $2,000 for a $100 wager on Detmers before the season started if he's ultimately successful. 

If American odds aren't your thing, simply use a tool like our odds converter to switch the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the odds format that you see.

2025 MLB Draft FAQ

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Jason Wilson Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Jason Wilson is an experienced journalist who has worked in a variety of roles within the industry for the past 18 years. Working at community newspapers in New Brunswick, Jason wore many hats as a reporter, editor, and photographer, covering everything from sports to courts to municipal politics. After shifting gears and working as an educator for a few years in the 2010s, Jason returned to full-time work in media as an MLB news editor for six years at theScore in Toronto before joining Covers in late 2021.

He has honed his editorial acumen over his years in the industry, showcasing flexibility, patience, and a strong work ethic. While he was relatively new to sports betting upon joining Covers, Jason has taken the plunge with gusto to learn the ins and outs of the industry, both as a method to improve professionally and to add an extra angle to his sports fandom.

In addition to sports, Jason is an avid film nut and former movie critic who monitors the Academy Awards betting odds for Covers. Jason holds a Bachelor of Arts in journalism degree and a Bachelor of Education degree from St. Thomas University.

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