Call them dingers, long balls, or no-doubters, there’s nothing quite like the thrill of a baseball leaving the yard. That’s why the MLB Home Run Derby is one of the most electric events on the calendar.
Cal Raleigh sits atop the 2025 Home Run Derby odds as the favorite at Truist Park, but when it comes to my MLB picks for July 14, I’m targeting a few underrated sluggers with effortless power and big-time upset potential.
Best MLB Home Run Derby props today
Wood to win (+450)
Buxton to win (+850)- ⚾ Longest HR u479.5 ft (-110)
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Our 3 best MLB Home Run Derby props for Monday, July 14
James Wood to win outright (+450 at Caesars)
James Wood checks a lot of boxes when it comes to being crowned a Home Run Derby champion. The 22-year-old Washington Nationals phenom has easy power, which has shown in his 24 first-half homers this season.
But it’s much more than that. Wood ranks third in the field in no-doubter percentage, which is the percentage of home runs that would have been home runs in all 30 major league ball parks. He’s second in the field in expected home runs, only behind favorite Cal “Big Dumper” Raleigh. And he leads the field in average home run distance this season at 411 feet.
He also ranks in the 97th percentile or better in average exit velocity, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage. So, you can see what I mean when I say easy power. The guy hits dingers.
The other aspect of home run derbies is, who is throwing you the ball? For Wood, that is Nationals third-base coach Ricky Gutierrez, who throws batting practice to Wood daily. And that seems to be working this season.
On top of that, this era of the Home Run Derby is also an endurance competition, and the 22-year-old Nationals outfielder should have plenty of gas in the tank for this event. As a top prospect, Wood is used to the bright lights already, and I’m betting he shines tonight.
Byron Buxton to win outright (+850 at Caesars)
Minnesota Twins star outfielder Byron Buxton is another guy with easy power, with arguably the prettiest swing of anyone in the field. He’s also healthy, which has been the biggest cloud over his career at this point.
But Buxton has been on the field this season, and he’s gone yard 21 times as a result. But he’s not just going yard. He’s going into the next yard.
Buxton leads the field in no-doubter rate, and not just by a little bit. A whopping 76.2% of his home runs would have left the yard in all 30 ballparks. The next closest in the field is Oneil Cruz at 68.8%, and the average for the field is 47.3%.
He’s also third in the field in expected home runs and second in average home run distance, which is great for getting that bonus ball.
Throwing Buxton the ball is third-base coach Tommy Watkins, who's known Buxton since 2013 when he was in Low-A ball and has been on the Twins staff since 2019. That familiarity can be a big advantage in the Home Run Derby.
So, when you look at the odds board and see Buxton outside the group of favorites at +850, that’s a price you have to jump on. Pair this with Buxton to get to the final at +370, and you should feel great about heading into the Derby tonight.
Longest HR Under 479.5 feet (-110 at Caesars)
Home runs are fun, and home runs in derbies can go a long way. It’s just that 479.5 feet is a really long way.
The longest home run hit in the big leagues this season was 484 feet by Mike Trout. The longest home run hit by someone in this field is by Byron Buxton at 479 feet.
Last year’s champion, Teoscar Hernandez, had an average home run distance of 429.6 feet. Outside of the moonshot derby at Coors Field in 2021, there have been only four home runs hit 500 feet in the Statcast era, which started in 2016, and Aaron Judge hit them all. The longest in recent years was a 484-foot bomb hit by Luis Robert in 2022.
You get what I’m saying here? It’s just really hard to hit the ball that far. And with the new format of the Derby, guys are much more conscious of not swinging out of their shoes on every pitch.
Now, if someone is going to hit one longer than that number, it’s probably Oneil Cruz. I like him to hit the longest home run tonight at +170. But overall, the longest dong can still be a dong and stay Under this number.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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