The New York Yankees continue their westward road trip after taking two of three from the A's over the weekend in a high-scoring series. Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners were swept by the Toronto Blue Jays.
My Yankees vs. Mariners predictions are betting on another rough outing for a Seattle starter.
I break it down here with my MLB picks for Monday, May 12, with the first pitch coming at 9:40 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park.
Yankees vs Mariners prediction
My Yankees vs Mariners best bet: Emerson Hancock Under 3.5 strikeouts (+120 at Caesars)
It will be interesting to see how Emerson Hancock approaches things tonight.
The young Seattle Mariners righty has flashed.
At Fenway Park against the Boston Red Sox, he held one of the best offenses in baseball to just two earned runs in six innings. It was a promising performance for many reasons. But it also highlighted his inconsistencies, as being a pitch-to-contact thrower can have its dark side.
He imploded against the Detroit Tigers on Opening Day, allowing six earned runs before being lifted in the first. While I'm not expecting that performance, the New York Yankees can present similar challenges, forcing Hancock into quick trouble.
With that prospect comes value in the prop market. The Under on outs has been well juiced to a no longer playable range. However, strikeouts have not.
The Bat X projects Hancock's pitch count to be roughly 84, and with his 1.56 walk + hit rate per inning, my model pegs this prop closer to -105. There's also the possibility that Hancock could even be run from the game even earlier than that pitch count suggests, and that's what I want to focus on.
Hancock's biggest struggle came against the aforementioned Tigers on Opening Day. The Yankees hitters share similar characteristics.
Both teams exhibit balanced contact profiles, focusing on line drives, center-field hitting, and solid contact, aligning closely with MLB averages in several metrics. The sweet spot launch angles are almost identical, which is significant given that three of the six hits in that first game had an exit velocity exceeding 100 mph. If anyone can replicate that against a pitch-to-contact hurler, it's the Yankees.
I project a more than 50% chance this cashes if we see just the typical outing from Hancock. However, what elevates this prop is the matchup. There's a higher-than-typical chance that the Bronx Bombers can do damage.
While unlikely to happen immediately, the ambush may occur within the first three innings. Either way, this number has too much value to pass up.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Yankees vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Emerson Hancock Under 3.5 strikeouts
Aaron Judge home run
Yankees F5 -0.5
I'll take my chances on Aaron Judge winning the head-to-head duel more often than not against a pitch-to-contact thrower who doesn't miss many bats.
However, that doesn't always mean Judge will go deep. What strengthens that belief is Hancock's overwhelming reliance on the sinker and how well the likely AL MVP has hit it this season. He's posted a .576 batting average, a .909 slugging percentage, and a 63% hard-hit rate.
I finish things up with the Yankees to lead after five innings. My projections saw a 3% edge on the current number, and the reasons are pretty obvious — I hate this matchup for Hancock.
Double your winnings for 10 separate bets at Caesars
Sign up for a Caesars account — using our exclusive promo code BASEBALLDYW — and get 10x profit boost tokens worth 100% each!
Register now to collect your Double your winning tokens, or learn more with our comprehensive Caesars Sportsbook review.
Yankees vs Mariners odds
Yankees vs Mariners live odds
Yankees vs Mariners opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -130 | Seattle +110
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+122) | Seattle +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Yankees vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+11.75 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Mariners.
How to watch Yankees vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Monday, 5-12-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, RSNW |
| Yankees starting pitcher | TBD |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Emerson Hancock (1-1, 5.70 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mariners latest injuries
Yankees vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
