The National League West is without a doubt going to be the most entertaining division in baseball this season, and I don’t expect that to change when the San Francisco Giants host the Arizona Diamondbacks for the opener of a three-game set.
Game 1 sees future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander toe the rubber against veteran Merrill Kelly, and that matchup immediately has me looking at the total.
My Diamondbacks vs. Giants predictions break it down and bring you my MLB picks for this NL West showdown with the first pitch set to be thrown at Oracle Park in San Francisco at 9:45 pm ET on Monday, May 12.
Diamondbacks vs Giants prediction
My Diamondbacks vs Giants best bet: Over 4.5 — first five innings (+100 at Caesars)
The Arizona Diamondbacks enter this game at 21-20 and have scored the third-most runs in the National League. That’s good for fourth place in the NL West. That’s how good the division is.
But while scoring runs hasn’t been a problem for the D-backs, preventing them has been. Their team ERA is a bloated 4.60, which ranks 24th in the MLB, and tonight’s starter, Merrill Kelly, has been a part of the problem.
The veteran right-hander continues to give Arizona innings, and not much else. Kelly has made eight starts this season and is pitching to a 4.95 expected ERA while surrendering a .279 expected batting average to opponents. Both rank in the Bottom 20% in the majors.
So, even the light-hitting San Francisco Giants can be productive in this matchup. And while Kelly has mixed results against San Francisco, the overall numbers aren’t great. Current Giants hitters have got to Kelly for a .268 xBA and a .473 xSLG.
Meanwhile, San Francisco counters Kelly with Justin Verlander. And the best way to describe the future Hall of Famer’s first season with the Giants is “meh.”
Sure, the veteran right-hander has put up some solid performances this season, but the overall body of work is, well, the body of work of a 42-year-old.
Verlander enters this game with a 4.43 xERA and a .259 xBA. Both are well below league average, while his strikeout rate is in the 26th percentile.
And being “meh” is not something you really want to be going against this D-backs lineup. Arizona, led by Corbin Carroll, ranks fifth in OPS and seventh in wRC+.
This is a great situation for both lineups to be successful. And a total of 8.0 looks low enough to hop on the Over.
However, I expect most of the scoring to come against the starters as this game features two bullpens that rank in the Top 10 when it comes to xFIP. So, give me the Over 4.5 in the first five innings instead, which we can get at even money.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Diamondbacks vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 4.5 — first five innings
Pavin Smith Over 0.5 RBI
Matt Chapman Over 1.5 total bases
Pavin Smith is one of the unsung heroes of this D-backs lineup, and he is raking this season, hitting .313. He’s also in a groove at the moment, collecting six hits in his last three games.
Smith also has great numbers against Verlander. While it’s only six plate appearances, Smith has three hits, and two of them left the Park. That’s good for a .638 xSLG. Let’s take him to drive in a run tonight.
And let’s close this same-game parlay out with the streaky Matt Chapman. Luckily for the Giants, their third baseman has opened May on a hot streak, hitting .306 with a .986 OPS.
Chapman is also 2-for-5 with two doubles in his career vs. Merril. He’s topped 1.5 total bases in six of his last nine games, so let’s back him to keep the good streak going tonight.
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Diamondbacks vs Giants odds
Diamondbacks vs Giants live odds
Diamondbacks vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona -115 | San Francisco -105
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+160) | San Francisco +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Diamondbacks vs Giants trend
The Over went 6-1-1 in the final eight meetings between these NL West rivals last season. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Giants.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Monday, 5-12-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (3-2, 4.09 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Justin Verlander (0-2, 4.50 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Giants latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Giants weather
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